Yes, it’s hot. This week has already broken two records: Monday was the hottest February day on record, with temperatures across England and Wales topping 20C. It was also the first time that a temperature of 20C or above had been recorded on a winter day in the UK.
Tuesday is likely to be hotter still. Great news for ice cream vans – but is this unseasonably warm weather a sign of climate change? In short, no. Scientists rightly avoid drawing a direct link between climate and weather. An unseasonably warm or cold day, month or even year cannot, and should not, be linked directly to climate change. But, in combination with an unending stream of extreme and unusual weather, it forms part of an unnerving live ticker of our planet’s destruction.
Scientists, of course, need more proof. But the general public really don’t. Climate change is happening all around us. Understanding specifically how and why it’s happening is a major academic and political challenge. But if you’re sitting around waiting for a The Day After Tomorrow apocalypse, it ain’t going to happen like that – though wait a few more years and your seaside villa will likely be in the sea.
When you’re living through a major historical event, it can be difficult to make sense of what’s happening. Climate change is not a one-off event, it’s a gradual change in what we consider to be normal. Last summer was the hottest on record in England and the joint-hottest for the entire UK. And now it’s picnic weather in February.
Climate change will very likely produce more extreme weather in the future. This time last year, the UK was in the grip of the Beast from the East, with record-breaking cold and widespread snowfall bringing much of the country to a standstill. Fast forward 12 months and it’s picnic weather.
Both extreme weather events are the result of a shift in where the air flowing over the UK comes from. Right now, high pressure is pulling warm air from Africa our way; last year, a shift in the polar continental air mass meant weather normally reserved for Scandinavia instead hit the UK. At the same time, temperatures in the Arctic were above zero on nine separate days in February. In Siberia, temperatures that month were 35C above average.
Something, clearly, is not right. Climate scientists don’t have enough data about these events to say for certain whether these conditions are related to climate change. What we can say is that these extreme weather events are being made more common by climate change. Shifts in the polar continental air mass have occurred throughout recorded history; the jet stream that has such a profound influence on the weather in the UK is constantly shifting.
Working out how that plays out over time – and how to prevent things from getting any worse – is the greatest crisis humanity has faced. And while a balmy February day in the UK might feel a bit spooky, its relation to wider weather patterns is the real cause for alarm.
Case in point: the Arctic. Temperatures in the Arctic are increasing three times as fast as the global average. This process, known as Arctic amplification, is accelerating the loss of huge quantities of Arctic sea ice. This, in turn, means more heat from the Sun that would have been reflected away is instead absorbed by the ocean.
Which brings us back to that nice picnic you enjoyed in the park this week. How these myriad of changes play out in the Arctic will have a profound impact on our planet. Climate models suggest that declining levels of sea ice could cause more variability in the weather systems that govern conditions further south. In short: severe winters are more likely. And severe doesn’t just mean cold. Similar climactic conditions that drive Arctic weather further south can also drive warmer weather further north. Study after study and model after model has shown one thing for certain: unusual weather is here to stay.
To see history unfolding before your eyes, look to Australia. 2018 and 2017 were Australia’s third and fourth-hottest years on record respectively. Officials have said climate change had led to an increase in extreme heat. Then, in January of this year, the country was gripped by a heatwave that sent temperatures up towards 50C across vast swathes of the country. The high temperatures led to dozens of bushfires, widespread blackouts and killed millions of fish that suffocated in the stifling heat. Scores of cows and wild horses were found dead or dying.
In November, another Australian heatwave killed an estimated 23,000 spectacled flying foxes, with the bats seen falling from trees in what researchers described as a “biblical scale” of deaths. A further 10,000 bats of another species, black flying foxes, also died. All the deaths took place over a period of two days when temperatures topped 42C.
While climate scientists continue to unpick the hugely complex network of systems driving these weather events and trends, it’s useful to focus on what we do now. Global sea levels have risen 17 centimetres in the last century – with levels over the last decade increasing at twice the rate of the preceding century. Twenty of the warmest years on record have occurred since 1981 with all ten of the warmest years occurring in the past 12 years.
Enjoy the sunshine.
Updated 26.02.19, 17:45 GMT: Global sea levels have risen 17 centimetres in the last century, not the last decade. The rate of increase over the past decade has been twice that of the preceding century.
This article was originally published by WIRED UK
