Polls are an essential part of any election. They allow us to track, with varying degrees of accuracy, the political leanings of the electorate. In the UK we have relied on exit polls for the past 40 years to predict the outcome of the election, directly after polls close. But what is an exit poll and why does it matter?
The BBC just announced the exit poll results. They are:
- Conservatives: 314 (-17)
- Labour: 266 (+34)
- SNP: 34 (-22)
- Liberal Democrats: 14 (+6)
If the exit poll proves correct, it would make the Conservative Party the largest party, but they would fall short of an overall majority of 326 seats.
According to the poll, 76 seats are "too close to call", which demonstrates there's still plenty of opportunity for the exit poll to be wrong in either direction.
The markets have responded to the possibility of a hung parliament with Sterling falling 1.5% against the Dollar. World First, a currency broker, is predicting Sterling could fall by as much as 2-4%.
What is an exit poll?
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The basic premise of the UK running polling system is asking the public which way they are inclined to vote before the day of the general election. Throughout the campaigning process, these votes are tallied to give an indication as to which party looks likely to win.
An exit poll, on the other hand, is a survey of people after they've voted, as they leave their polling stations. This survey encompasses thousands of people across the United Kingdom and is often seen as a more accurate representation of the electoral swing. Also, running poles can change, exit polls don't.
The data derived from exit polls is used to predict the results of the election. This is done by compiling votes for each constituency and taking an educated guess at how many seats each party has won across the country. It should be stressed, though, that these results are not certainties – surprises can occur that contradict the trend and exit polls simply offer a glimpse into the mind of voters.
- Learn more about the polling process on the UpVote podcast
Exit polls are set to be published as soon as the votes close – at 10pm on June 8, 2017. The results will appear on Sky News and the BBC as soon as the votes come in. To get a majority standing in the House of Commons, political parties must get at least 326 seats.
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In the UK, we have seen two recent polls emerge that contradict each other. This is common – polls created before an election are liable to disagree in terms of data handling. Plus technology has allowed polling to evolve from paper-based surveys to tracking digital trends. While traditional methods are still being employed across the UK, two polls, in particular, are utilising machine learning and mobile-based responses to improve their accuracy.
With data collected between June 5 to 7, YouGov polls used what is described as "multilevel regression and post-stratification analysis" to try to model how each individual voter in the country thinks. In other words, they use machine learning to quantify votes before they are collected. This requires a large sample size (50,000 people), and must take into account regression against census demographics and British Election Study data.
Another poll has predicted political victory using a mobile-based system – one that has a history of predicting a mix of results. London research company Qriously conducts surveys by sending short questionnaires via mobile phones to a variety of users in a matter of seconds. Using this method, Qriously was able to correctly predict the outcome of the Brexit referendum.
This article was originally published by WIRED UK
