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Even with intelligence, terrorist attacks seemingly occur at random. But new research from UCL suggests that they're not so random after all -- and a mathematical model could help security forces predict when and how an attack is going to happen.
The paper, published in the Journal of Applied Mathematics, looked at incidents during the Troubles in Northern Ireland. Over 5,000 explosions were analysed between 1970 and 1998, with researchers tracking where and when they occurred, how security forces responded and how effective these responses were.
They found that after the initial likelihood of an attack occurring, there was another small boost in probability. This boost in probability then decreased as time passed.
With this data, the team was then able to map the phases of the Troubles onto a timeline:
- Phase 1, when the IRA was arranged "in a military style, having brigades, battalions and companies"
- Phase 2, when the IRA took on a "cell based structure"
- Phase 3, when the IRA moved into the political arena via Sinn Fein
- Phase 4, when a ceasefire began to be negotiated
- Phase 5, when "peace talks were announced and the Good Friday Agreement signalled the end of the Troubles"
And in each phase the probability of an attack was also calculated and mapped. After one attack the likelihood that another would occur increased until it reached a limit, at which point it began to decrease again.
The findings, the researchers said, can be explained by a method called the Hawkes process. The Hawkes process suggests that incidents such as terrorist attacks, gang-related crimes and burglaries don't take place in isolation. And the probability of a similar event happening immediately afterwards decreases as time passes.
The team said their research could be a vital tool for counter-terrorism, and hope to expand their models to further understand the patterns of terrorist attacks.
This could, they say, enable security services to understand more about "hotspots of terrorism" during the Troubles and more generally. This could help law enforcement understand how and when to intervene after a major attack.
This article was originally published by WIRED UK
