All suburban services running into London could soon be devolved to TfL, a move supported by 68 percent of Londoners according to official figures. But what would London's new rail network look like and what issues does it face?
The proposals, which have now received government backing, could radically change the way people move around the city. All services into and out of London Bridge, Canon Street, Charing Cross, Moorgate, Victoria and Waterloo could soon be incorporated into TfL's network. And the need, according to the official report, is acute.
A total of 835 million journeys were made by passengers on London's railways during the financial year 2013-2014. By 2030 London's population, currently 8.6 million, will pass ten million. And by 2050 demand for rail services in London is likely to have increased by 80 percent.
Compared to the rest of the UK, four times as many rail trips are made by Londoners and those living in the south each year. The popularity of London's already overcapacity railways continues to rise, with journeys on all rail-based transport in London almost doubling in the last 25 years.
As the report notes, London's railways are under "more pressure than ever". The capital is home to nine of the ten busiest railways stations in the country, with Waterloo clocking up 99,201,604 entries and exits in the most recent financial year.
Clapham Junction, which is served by Southern, South West Trains and London Overground, saw nearly three times more passenger interchanges than any other station in the UK, with 28,425,609 people changing trains during the financial year 2014-2015. Birmingham New Street, the busiest station outside London, had 5,379,133 interchanges and 35,312,788 passenger entries and exits in the same period.
The transfer of control over London's suburban rail network has been mooted for some time. In 2012 mayoral candidate Ken Livingstone, who oversaw the creation of the London Overground in 2007, pledged to bring train services under the mayor's control. At the time a spokesperson for mayor Boris Johnson said his office continued to lobby the government for greater control of rail franchises in London.
By late last year it appeared a deal was close. In October 2015 a report from the London Assembly's transport committee recommended radical reforms of London's rail services.
The Orange Line
The success of London Overground has been cited by many as a reason to hand TfL control of more of the capital's rail network. In 2015, London Overground services arrived at their terminating station no more than five minutes late 94.2 percent of the time, a figure only battered by Merseyrail on 95.4 percent. TfL Rail, the initial brand for London Crossrail services that opened in May 2015, also ranked highly at 93.8 percent.
Southeastern and Govia Thameslink Railway (which includes Southern), both of which serve areas of London where TfL has little presence, both performed poorly. Including long-distance services, deemed punctual if they arrive within 10 minutes of the advertised time, Southeastern services scored 88.3 percent with Govia the worst performing franchise in the country on 81.4 percent. The average across all UK rail franchises in 2015 was 89.2 percent.
Ridership on London Overground increased 80 percent in its first four years, with a 50 percent cut in delays since it launched in 2007. A major part of the orange line's success has come from reorganising previously disconnected parts of London's rail infrastructure.
A look at suburban railway stations not served by the Overground makes a compelling case for change. Brixton station on the Victoria line gets 29 million entries and exits per year. The nearby Brixton rail station gets just one million.
Morden on the Northern Line has nine million entries and exits per year with the adjacent Morden South getting just 100,000. These suburban stations are often poorly connected, with infrequent services taking circuitous routes to the city centre.
Connecting the South
According to a report by the think-tank Centre for London, track layout, signalling, new junctions, improved rolling stock and better platform management on currently inefficient and under-utilised lines in south London could have a major impact.
The think-tank's report, which called on TfL to take over all south London rail services, contains many of the proposals that have now been laid out by the government. Similarly, the official report moots the creation of a South London Metro, adding much-needed rail capacity to the south and south east of the capital.
The Metro service, which will take decades to be realised, would bring trains to Balham every two to three minutes, trains to Peckham every seven to eight minutes and trains to Forest Hill every three minutes. The report also suggested the creation of "consistent, easier to understand 'lines'", similar to the reorganising of the London Overground.
The proposals for the entire of London's suburban rail network announced by the Department for Transport and Mayor of London include:
- more frequent and reliable trains, better interchanges and increased capacity
- a London Suburban Metro service where 80 percent of stations have a train every 15 minutes, up from 67 percent today
- more regular services via Clapham Junction, south east London and Kent
- new rail lines to connect poorly serviced areas
- improved accessibility, staffing and better travel information
And the changes could start happening as early as next year when the South Western franchise becomes available. Southeastern, which services Victoria, London Bridge, Charing Cross, Blackfriars and Canon Street, would follow in 2018. Thameslink, Southern and Great Northern (incorporating additional lines into Victoria, London Bridge, King's Cross and Moorgate) would complete the network by 2021 or later.
Clapham Junction would be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the proposed changes. The report estimates that better signalling and faster turnarounds at the station could increase suburban trains passing through from 14 to 25 per hour.
But how much will these improvements cost? The report makes no mention of what strain the proposed TfL takeover would have on public finances, but it won't come cheap. Centre for London's estimated that creating a TfL-run suburban rail network in south London would cost somewhere between the £6.5bn cost of the Thameslink programme and the £14.8bn spent on Crossrail. By comparison, it has cost TfL approximately £1.5bn to upgrade the existing London Overground network to current standards.
Anyone wishing to provide feedback on the proposals should email railprospectus@tfl.gov.uk by 18 March 2016.
This article was originally published by WIRED UK
