It's hard to tell if you recently squeezed into a Tube carriage at rush hour, but for the first time in 20 years, fewer people are riding the London Underground than in the previous year.
With 20 million fewer journeys made (roughly equivalent to four million fewer passengers) when compared with the year up to last November, it's equal to four days of normal Tube operation. Transport for London is now expecting £240m less in fares this year, which will increase its already considerable deficit, expected to reach £1 billion by the end of the financial year.
But who are the people that have let their Oyster cards gather dust? Why have they stopped using the Tube? What are they doing instead? And will their actions inadvertently push TfL off a cliff edge?
Regular London Underground riders (the ones who are still using it anyway), might be wondering at this point why, if there are millions fewer passengers, you still can’t get a seat on your train to work. "The question is when and where these drops are coming off,” says Tom Colthorpe, a researcher for the Centre for London.
One school of thought is that the drop, which works out as only one or two per cent of Tube trips, is really that noticeable when spread over all the trains on London's network. Another is that it might be at certain times or locations that the effects are fully manifested, such as in the outer branches of the Tube lines, or outside rush hours.
These changes might be linked to short term causes such as terror attacks. Past events, such as the 7/7 bombings in 2005, had notable effects, with use of the Tube in 2005 falling by up to 30 per cent. This was mostly caused by fewer visitors and shoppers in the capital, with the significant majority of commuters still travelling as normal.
Current analysis by TfL’s passenger surveys shows that this is still a concern for travellers, with worries about safety and security increasing by 11 per cent since mid-2017, in the wake of the London Bridge attack. But as Colthorpe explains, these "one offs" do not account for longer term trends.
Although the "fare freeze", championed by Sadiq Khan, has halted price rises on Underground tickets, it doesn't apply to the prices of travelcards, therefore hurting the wallets of the most frequent riders for the benefit of the more occasional passenger. Whether this is the right approach or not is debatable, but what is likely is that rising prices have forced habitual Tube users to look to alternative transport options to escape the rising costs.
Some may have kept within the TfL sphere, as bus travel has become slightly more popular in the same period. This was likely due in part to the new Hopper fare, which allows cheaper prices over multiple bus rides. However others will have turned to ride sharing services or other rivals to reduce the strain on their finances.
Perhaps the most likely answer is the influence of technology on people's travelling habits. The rise in flexibly working, with more people working from home, might be partly to blame. Uber also competes directly with TfL for passengers, while Deliveroo and Netflix are keeping people at home when previously they might have gone out for dinner or an evening at the cinema. Colthorpe agrees, saying this kind of “systematic” cause is a much more logical reason for the drop.
So if TfL can't tempt passengers back onto its platforms, how could it deal with the shortfall? It could delay planned extensions and upgrades to the Tube lines (as it has already done for some refurbishment plans), or reduce bus services, neither of which are likely to be popular proposals. If passengers continue to shun the Tube, then “reconfiguration of parts of the network is going to have to happen at some point” to reduce unprofitable services, Colthorpe argues.
On the other hand, TfL has also been flogging the space around and above its stations to developers for homes and offices. Since it owns 5,700 acres of land in London, Colthorpe believes that speeding up these developments could also TfL to make up for their losses in other areas. There is also the upcoming Elizabeth Line (that's Crossrail), which is expected to run at near to full capacity from opening, and hopefully be very profitable.
Read more: The future of your commute is standing (for now)
But central government isn't making it easy for TfL. A recent request by Sadiq Khan to increase the maximum penalty for motorist fines in London was denied by transport secretary Chris Grayling, denying an additional £80 million for the transport body. In addition, the Department for Transport has been reducing TfL's resource grant since 2015, expected to be equivalent to a £2.8bn cut by the time the grant is ended in 2019.
So overall, no one is really sure why the Tube is getting a little less crowded, or if this will significantly impact TfL’s health. The transport provider’s undoubtedly in a “financially tricky situation“ as Tom Colthorpe says, but it’s also “too soon to tell“ if recent passenger concerns about safety, prices and changing lifestyles will continue. What is certain is that despite its troubles, TfL has enough tools at its disposal that even with the fall in fare income and cuts to its funding, it should be able to keep things on track for the moment.
This article was originally published by WIRED UK
