This article was taken from the June 2014 issue of Wired magazine. Be the first to read Wired's articles in print before they're posted online, and get your hands on loads of additional content by <span class="s1">subscribing online.
More than half of Kickstarter campaigns fail. According to researchers at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne, who analysed the launch dynamics of 16,000 campaigns, you can tell with 76 per cent confidence within just four hours of their launch which projects won't make it, based on a formula that computes early funding behaviour and social-media activity. To predict the outcome, the formula uses the amount of pledges at a point in time and looks at campaigns with similar evolution:
The probability that a campaign c will succeed is the average result of the k closest campaigns (denoted as ć). The function I{ć was successful} in the sum is the indicator function, meaning that it is equal to 1 if the campaign ć was successful and 0 otherwise.
The result is thus the proportion of the k closest campaigns that were successful. "It works by comparing a project with those whose outcomes we know," says Vincent Etter, who led the research.
Price it right
"Successful projects ask for less money," says Etter. It's not just a case of needing to pull in fewer backers: you yield a higher percentage of your target more quickly, reaching a tipping point that wins more support (a project that reaches 30 per cent has a 90 per cent chance of success). Do your sums: the most popular pledge is $25 (£15), and look at pledges in your category using tools such as Kicktraq, or Sidekick, which Etter created.
Get the timing right
As we know from eBay auctions, timing is everything. "The day you start the campaign matters," Etter says. Launch on a Monday, when web users are more likely to share. Aim to end on a Friday or Saturday afternoon, in a time zone that captures as much of your audience as you can, and pick a period of the month when people have spare cash -- post payday. Don't be tempted to choose a long duration -- the default 30 days is optimal.
Prepare the perfect pitch
Hone your idea and keep it nice and simple. In your description, be clear about the project's aims -- and exactly where the funds will go. A video (tightly edited and short) is a must: "projects that don't have a video will fail," says Etter. Projects with videos succeed half the time, and those without just 30 per cent: and of million-dollar projects, 93 per cent had a video -- with a mean running time of 3'57".
Design your rewards carefully
Limit rewards at each tier to make them exclusive, drawing backers: discounted orders work well for lower rewards, and higher tiers should offer a personal touch. "Cheap rewards are the most important," says Etter. Projects with rewards priced below $20 succeed more often (45 per cent of the time) than others (28 per cent). Kickstarter says that offering involvement with the creative process is the best way to thank backers.
Engage with your audience
Participation is crowdfunding's great appeal, says Etter. Engaging with backers on Kickstarter and through social media, providing regular updates and responding to comments quickly is crucial. "Build attention before so when you launch, people already know about it," says Etter. Take the time to reach out to people personally. "The more first-time backers you have, the more likely you are to succeed," says Etter.
This article was originally published by WIRED UK
