It's been more than 50 years since Intel co-founder Gordon Moore published his paper detailing a simple theory that revolutionised computing, making all the technology we see as fundamental to life today possible.
That paper was the prediction that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit will double approximately every two years.
Since that time, Moore's Law has been proven correct, time and again, and as a result it has long been said to be responsible for most of the advances in the digital age, from PCs to supercomputers, due to it being used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and set targets for research and development.
However, according to a new report from the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) – which includes chip giants Intel and Samsung – transistors will get to a point where they can shrink no further by as soon as 2021. The companies argue that, by that time, it will be no longer economically viable to make them smaller.
This means that while they could physically be made smaller in theory, they will reach what the ITRS call "their economic minimum", meaning doing so will only make the costs prohibitive.
However, the ITRS believes this does not mean the end of the concept behind Moore's Law, as manufacturers find increasingly innovative ways to squeeze more switches into a given space. Take 3D NAND, for example, the idea of stacking sets of transistors on top of each other to create "3D processors".
This isn’t the first time the Moore's Law theory has been doubted. Last year, Intel CEO Brian Krzanich announced that the firm's shift from one transistor size to another is stretching from two to 2.5 years. This was not so long after the US chip firm said the law will only become more relevant in the next two decades as everyday objects become smaller, smarter and connected.
Krzanich questioned this during an Intel earnings call, saying manufacturing processes haven't advanced at the same rate as in the past.
In 2014, it was rumoured that single molecule technology could finally break Moore's law and allow gadgets to store huge amounts of data on tiny flash storage cards. Chemists behind the new molecules said the new technology could help solve the looming flash storage dilemma.
This article was originally published by WIRED UK
