On Friday, at approximately 6.59pm UK time, in beer gardens and on sofas, in distant bedrooms and offices, on faraway breakfast tables and tropical islands, millions will be in the final throes of frantically tinkering with a global maths and probability game.
One hour and one minute later, their eyes will be glued to the Premier League kick-off: Liverpool vs Norwich. They will bury their heads into their phones, flit between illegal streams and repeatedly hit F5 on work computers. But most won’t be supporting either side. Some won’t even be football fans. All, however, will be itching for point hauls and bragging rights.
The game is Fantasy Premier League. Last season, more than 6.3 million ‘managers’ around the world selected a virtual squad – composed of 15 real-life footballers – to accrue points based on players’ live in-game stats and contributions. Users can tweak tactics and transfer players within a £100 million budget ahead of a weekly deadline, with the aim of maximising points to top mini-leagues and global rankings.
It’s grown exponentially, doubling in players since 2014, with this season set to be its biggest yet. And it’s dramatically re-shaping fans’ relationship with the real game: many are now watching football not for the on-the-pitch drama, but in the hope of seeing their FPL player score big. “I can’t watch a match without somehow being invested,” says expert player Holly Shand, founder of Fantasy Football Community. “I’m constantly making notes on substitutions, injuries and set-piece takers – FPL has completely changed how I follow football.”
Last-minute winner from Mo Salah, 1-0 Liverpool. Moments later, millions of phones flash with WhatsApp messages, pinged between FPL-dedicated group chats. Twitter and Reddit are alight with tales of joy and despair. The conversation isn’t centred on the goal, nor the Premier League title race. Instead, it’s all about doubled captain totals, squandered points and mini-league ramifications.
Shand says that with relatively little reward at stake (weekly official prizes include a mug and stress ball), it’s this dynamic between mini-league rivals – friends, colleagues, loved ones – which keeps players hooked. “It’s all about the bragging rights. It’s a male-dominated game, and males are more competitive – they want the banter.”
Mark Griffiths, a psychologist and director of the International Gaming Research Unit at Nottingham Trent University, agrees. “Fun, excitement and competition are the three most rewarding features of gaming. So, if you enjoy fantasy football, find it stimulating and are doing better than your friends, endorphins and other pleasure chemicals will be released into the body.”
Many dual-screen between live football and FPL updates on their phones. “It goes deeper than just playing the game,” says Griffiths. “It’s being on forums and interacting with other players. If you’re personally invested in it, then the match becomes suddenly much more exciting – and, of course, more frustrating if your player is substituted.”
FPL is a prediction game. And, with every football match generating an infinite number of variables, that’s a big problem. Bridging the gap is stats. With players forever trying to gain an upper hand over rivals, it’s no surprise that the upsurge in fantasy football has coincided with cold, hard data going from football anorak to Match Of The Day mainstream. Terms like ‘xG’ (expected goals) and ‘big chances created’ would have prompted shrugs from the average fan a few years ago. Today though, they’re an integral part of matchday broadcasts and – increasingly – the everyday football lexicon.
“Fantasy has helped fans become more data literate,” says Peter Deeley, of Premier League statistics provider Opta. “It’s interesting, many players would have also grown up with video games like Football Manager and Pro Evo – they’re used to seeing numbers as a measure of footballing performance. People used to talk about David Beckham’s crossing ability – the language is now ‘expected assists'.”
Shand says that more and more are playing FPL without even watching live games – and are doing well – by simply analysing underlying statistics and looking at form and fixtures objectively. So, what’s the future? Will fantasy games turn football fans into emotionless, data-driven analytical machines? Will the beautiful game stiffen into a more rigid, stats-heavy sport akin to American football and baseball?
Deeley doesn’t think so. “Football has so many more variables – players can pretty much do anything with the ball. NFL, in comparison, has way more structure and rules – it lends itself more to data analysis. And, although fans are seeing more statistical outputs – thanks to fantasy games and live broadcasts – it’s not as if they’ll be talking about xG value when a forward is in on goal. The metric simply adds detail to the general conversation.”
Either way, the fantasy and real football worlds are increasingly becoming one. Last season, Premier League football was beamed to 3.2 billion homes around the globe. Ahead of the weekend’s action, the official FPL Show, hosted by noted football presenter James Richardson, was broadcast live to territories as far-flung as the US, Canada, India, Malaysia and Australia – on the very same channels which have the Premier League rights.
Shand, who has twice finished in the top 10,000 FPL players, is a frequent panellist. She explains that it goes further: more and more real footballers have their own fantasy team. “The Premier League make promo videos and get one or two players interviewed on the FPL Show each week. They’re encouraged to play," she says. Bournemouth goalkeeper Asmir Begovic is a big player, Crystal Palace’s Patrick Van Aanholt started his own mini-league last season, then Brighton defender Shane Duffy captained himself for a pair of fixtures. He blanked – only scoring himself two points – and later tweeted that he’d never do it again. "The power of social media brings it all together,” Shand explains.
There’s a bittersweet and outright surreal blurring of the lines when an FPL manager’s player scores against the team they support in real life. Not many will cheer an opposition goal just because the scorer is in their virtual side, however. Certainly not Shand. “I’m a Hull City fan, I was there when Spurs beat us 7-1 in our final Premier League game. Harry Kane was my FPL captain and he scored a hat-trick. I did well on a fantasy level, but it was still a very grim day.”
Tales of FPL-success-meets-IRL-doom aside, the Premier League is engaging fans like never before, with more and more watching live matches – all because of fantasy football. “Ultimately, it’s a great marketing tool,” says Shand. “You watch a game only because you have an FPL player on the pitch. It’s addictive, ten months long and combines the best in numbers and football – there’s nothing else like it.”
This article was originally published by WIRED UK
