All products featured on WIRED are independently selected by our editors. However, we may receive compensation from retailers and/or from purchases of products through these links.
In late June, Europe faced its most severe heatwave in sixteen years, with temperature records falling across the continent. France recorded its hottest day ever, hitting highs of 45.9 degrees Celsius on June 28, while Germany and Switzerland also recored record-breaking temperatures for the month of June.
The last time the continent faced such extreme temperatures was in 2003, when a heatwave killed more than 20,000 people. But, as the effects of climate change start to take hold, such extreme weather events are starting to become more common. Here’s everything you need to know about the future of heatwaves in Europe and beyond.
1. Climate change made the 2019 European heatwave at least five times likelier
According to World Weather Attribution, a partnership between universities and meteorological institutions that seeks to measure the influence of climate change on extreme weather, the 2019 heatwave in France was made at least five times more likely because of climate change, and potentially as much as 100 times more likely.
The analysis found that a century ago, similar heatwaves would have been around four degrees Celsius cooler, and that heatwaves of this intensity now occur at least ten times more frequently today than a century ago.
2. The last four years were the warmest on record
Global average temperatures for the past four years have been higher than any other year on record. The years 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 were all warmer than any year since 1850 – the year when reliable temperature records are generally considered to have begun.
Out of the past four years, 2016 takes the top spot as the warmest year ever, with temperatures an average of 1.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. An analysis by the World Meteorological Organization found that 2017 and 2015 were both 1.1 degrees above pre-industrial levels, while 2018 was ever-so-slightly cooler at 1.0 degrees above 1850 levels.
These recent figures are just the latest in a long line of record-breaking years. The 20 warmest years on record have all occurred in the past 22 years.
3. Heatwaves are going to become much more common
Extremely hot summers are projected to become increasingly common over the next few decades. A 2015 study published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change found that extreme weather events that would have occurred only twice a century in the 2000s are now expected to happen twice every decade.
The same is true of even more extreme weather events, that before the turn of the 21st century would only have occurred once every 1,000 years. Now such events are likely to recur every 100 or so years.
4. June 2019 smashed temperature records across Europe
Summer has barely gotten underway and temperature records are already tumbling across the continent. On Wednesday, June 26, the average temperature across France reached a high of 34.9 degrees, beating the previous record for the hottest June day which was 34.3 degrees in 1952.
Other countries have been piling-in on the record-breaking action too. In Germany on June 26, a weather station in Berlin recorded a temperature of 38.6 degrees, the hottest June temperature ever recorded in the country. On the same day, Poland broke its June record with a temperature of 38.2 degrees recorded at a weather station in the eastern town of Radzyń.
Data for the whole of Europe showed that the continent's average June temperature was higher in 2019 than any other June on record. Average temperatures were more than two degrees higher than normal.
5. Deaths from heatwaves are projected to climb steeply
The June 2019 heatwave has already reportedly claimed three lives in France, after people jumping into cold water to cool off struggled to adjust to the dramatically different temperatures. But people who already live in warm regions are even more vulnerable to extreme weather events.
A study by researchers in Melbourne, Australia, found that if the rate of carbon emissions continues to increase, heatwave deaths in three Australian cities (Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne) will increase by 471 per cent compared with the period 1971-2010. In the UK last year a House of Commons report said that heat-related deaths could triple by 2050, reaching up to 7,000 per year.
But it is the world’s poorest regions who will shoulder the brunt of climate change, a situation the United Nations’ special rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights described as “climate apartheid” in a report released in late June 2019.
6. The majority of the world is facing the prospect of deadly heat
Currently, around 30 per cent of the world’s population is exposed to deadly heat levels for at least 20 days a year. In a best case scenario, if humans manage to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, this percentage is projected to increase to 48 per cent, according to a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
If greenhouse gas emissions keep increasing – and that looks likely as 2018 saw emissions reach their highest levels ever – the authors predict that 74 per cent of the world will experience 20 or more days per year of deadly heat after the year 2100.
7. Shifting jet streams are making heatwaves more likely
The weather in Western Europe is dominated by the jet stream – a core of high-altitude strong winds that blows from west to east around the world. Last year’s heatwave was caused in-part by a weaker than usual jet stream that allowed high pressure air to linger over Europe, bringing with it clear skies and high temperatures.
According to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, these slower summer jet streams are becoming more common, favouring conditions that allow periods of high pressure to dominate, leading to summer heatwaves in Europe.
8. European wildfires are on the increase
Periods of hot, dry weather bring with them an increased risk of wildfires. And 2019 is already proving to be an exceptional year on that front. On March 1, 2019, the EU’s Emergency Management Service said that there had been 480 wildfires across Europe up to that point. In a normal year, you wouldn’t expect to reach that number of wildfires until much later, closer to mid-August.
This article was originally published by WIRED UK
