England have a 59 per cent chance of making the World Cup final, and a 30 per cent chance of lifting the trophy according to data from 21st Club. Before France’s 1-0 victory over Belgium, England were favourites to both reach the final and win the tournament. Croatia, their semi-final opponents have a 41 per cent chance of reaching the final and a 15 per cent chance of winning the World Cup.
Omar Chaudhuri, head of football intelligence at the performance analysis firm, explains how England got this far and how they can go all the way and, yes, bring football home.
The value of a good draw
Before the tournament kicked off, our model gave England just over a one-in-four chance reaching the semi-finals. In those simulations where England did reach the last four, they won the tournament 23 per cent of the time. That their chances are now higher, at 30 per cent, reflects two things. First, that they are playing better than expected and have settled on a consistent team; our model rates them higher now than it did before a ball was kicked.
Second, that the draw has been kind to them. England’s most likely semi-final opponents on this half of the bracket before the tournament were Spain and Argentina. While both nations were underwhelming en route to second round exits, they have both performed better than Croatia over recent years and would have proved even tougher opponents.
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That said, Belgium or France would still be favourites in a final against either England or Croatia. For now, it’s just that the higher uncertainty around the winner of this semi-final means that England are the most likely team to lift the trophy. Belgium and France had higher expectations coming into the tournament – they were third and fifth favourites respectively in our model – and therefore had to do more to improve their chances. France have only truly impressed in one game so far, against Argentina, and Belgium’s win against Brazil is somewhat counterbalanced by the fact they found themselves 2-0 down against Japan and could easily have gone out.
A kind draw has been a recurring theme in this tournament for England, but that’s not uncommon for teams that go deep in major tournaments. Just two years ago, Portugal won the European Championships without playing any of Europe’s traditional powerhouses until the final. In 2014, Argentina – like England – didn’t face a previous World Cup winner until the final. It is unlikely history will place too much weight on this though; few people caveat England’s 1990 semi final run with the fact that they knocked out relatively weak opponents then, too.
Control in midfield
For the first time in this tournament, England will be facing a team that has a world-class central midfield pairing. Croatia’s Luka Modrić and Ivan Rakitić are both UEFA Champions League winners, and are exactly the type of players England have historically feared at major tournaments. England have struggled to produce (or in some cases just select) players who are able to retain possession under pressure, and have often been picked apart by opponent players who can.
While England are trying hard to change this, the fact remains that most of their possession has belonged to their centre backs this tournament, and that they have struggled to build up attacks through central midfield. Croatia haven’t yet been fluent in this area either, but will give themselves opportunities to find a way simply by being better able to find a team mate in tight situations. England may look to rely on Harry Kane again, who dropped deep from his striker role into midfield against Colombia in the second round. This may create space for players like Jesse Lingard, Dele Alli and Raheem Sterling to receive direct passes running beyond him.
The role of Southgate
English football has long struggled with the title of ‘manager’, which implies a more all-encompassing role than someone with the title of ‘head coach’. Many clubs face succession planning problems after a manager leaves, such is their influence across the organisation.
That said, the title of manager for England’s Gareth Southgate seems as appropriate as it has ever been. Unlike in club football, it hasn’t been undue either. Beyond just coaching the team, he has played a key role in shaping the culture around the side, and his management of the media has been hugely impressive.
Tactically, however, Southgate has yet to be truly challenged. This is clearly where managers earn their money. Our research suggests that the best coaches can be worth around double a team’s best player, but it’s difficult to argue losing Southgate would hurt England more than losing Kane – yet. England have showed little tactical flexibility so far, sticking with the 3-5-2 formation in the belief that having trained extensively with it, it’s the best plan A, B and C. You can’t argue with the results to date, but Croatia are a side that could seriously test this approach. If England are struggling to control the game Southgate will have his first major in-game tactical decision of the tournament.
Pressure on Sterling?
Raheem Sterling is perhaps the only remaining England player under pressure to perform at this World Cup. Against Sweden he missed a major chance to put England 2-0 ahead, which furthered his reputation as an unreliable finisher of scoring chances. In terms of minutes on the field for England, he has played the equivalent of 31 matches, but scored just two goals.
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While this is an underwhelming record, Sterling’s league performance (a much bigger sample, equivalent to 156 matches) and evidence from the data provides some reason for optimism. One of the first significant advances in football analytics was to establish that finishing is hugely random. Good players mostly convert chances at a similar rate to bad players. Sterling is proof of this; he has scored 13 per cent of his shots in the Premier League, which is no different to what we would expect from other players shooting from the same positions.
Provided Sterling hasn’t lost confidence and continues making the forward runs that has gotten him into good scoring positions, the goals are likely to come. The trouble with randomness is that it’s hard to predict exactly when.
Experience versus youth
One key contrast between the teams is the level of experience in international football. Just one England player has over 50 caps (Gary Cahill, who doesn’t start), while Croatia have six who have reached this landmark (five of whom are expected to play). On the one hand this reflects the quality of Croatia’s best players, but on the other it reflects their age. Croatia had six starters against Russia who we would define as being past peak age for their position, while England had just one. In general in football, research shows that a squad that is more tilted towards peak age will usually trump a squad that is tilted towards experience; at some point experience becomes redundant if your body can’t keep up.
Fatigue will be a factor
Croatia come into the match having played 120 minutes in back-to-back matches. It’s therefore no surprise that there are concerns that the team will be more tired than England come kick off, who were not stretched physically against Sweden. However, the evidence as to how much this will affect them is both lacking and mixed. Other teams in the same position in major international tournaments this century have both won their next game (Portugal in Euro 2016, Mexico in the 2015 Gold Cup, Japan in the 2004 Asian Cup) and lost their next game (South Korea in the 2002 World Cup, Paraguay in the 2011 Copa América, Burkina Faso in the 2013 Africa Cup of Nations).
International teams all leverage technology to help them track physical activity in training and in matches, but the data can be incredibly noisy. Croatia have covered less distance per match than England this tournament, but is that because of fatigue, or do their tactics mean their players don’t need to run as much? Either way, the last time Luka Modrić played 330 minutes in eleven days he went off injured in the next match, and missed Real Madrid’s 2014-15 Champions League semi final tie (which they subsequently lost). As fit as the modern footballer is, the World Cup adds unusual physical strain to an already heightened level of mental stress.
This article was originally published by WIRED UK
