David Spiegelhalter has made it his mission to popularise ideas about evidence, risk, uncertainty and probability.
As the Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk, and Professor of Biostatistics, at the University of Cambridge, he was on the panel that drew up guidelines for press reporting of science stories requested by the Leveson Inquiry. He is also the World Champion in Loop, a version of pool invented by mathematician Alex Bellos, that is played on an elliptical table with a single pocket.
Possibly his greatest achievement, he says, is coming seventh in an episode of Winter Wipeout. As part of our Scientists Meet the Media series, he speaks to WIRED about the accountability of algorithms, on why he doesn’t believe in scientific breakthroughs, and the Cambridge Analytica scandal.
As a statistician, it’s not my job to try to explain social changes. But I suppose contributing factors could be a decrease in deference to authority, and greater access to diverse opinions through social media and the internet. But these can be considered as healthy trends. Anti-science sentiment seems strong in the US and mainland Europe, but trust in science and scientists remains high in the UK. I think we should reciprocally be more trusting of the basic sense of most people.
On scientific breakthroughs
I don’t expect scientific breakthroughs, as science tends to increase incrementally. But I suppose I would quite like a Douglas Adams-style Babelfish to put in our ears so we can all talk to each other in different languages. And I think this will happen before too long.
On what he would say to Donald Trump
I don’t think there would be any point in attempting meaningful communication, so I would probably just stand and gawp, as I would when confronted with a large and unpredictable animal in a zoo. Fortunately this meeting is unlikely to take place.
On the hype around AI
There is currently massive hype around AI, largely based on some truly impressive progress in statistical machine learning algorithms. Rather than killer robots and taking all the jobs, I believe the perils of AI centre around its governance, in the sense of ownership of data, transparency and accountability of algorithms, and so on. Fortunately there is increasing awareness of these issues, and I hope the bubble of credulous enthusiasm will soon deflate.
On the Cambridge Analytica scandal
In exchange for extraordinary and free services, we have handed over details of our personal lives and become increasingly dependent on proprietary technology. I look forward to more scandals of the Cambridge Analytica-type, which will lead to increased scrutiny and possible regulation of these corporations.
On the importance of diversity
I can’t wait for this to happen, particularly if it is associated in a reduction in competitive ego-driven culture, and more attention to the reasons for doing the work in the first place.
On anti-microbial resistance
Anti-microbial resistance is a serious and pressing issue. But, in general, I think researchers should think long and hard about the real value of their work. Vast funds have been poured into biological and genomic research over the last quarter-century or so, with returns that are minimal compared with the claims that have been made. I now see promises of huge funding for AI and personalised medicine, and I am similarly sceptical about the future health benefits from all this expenditure and effort. Even if cancer were miraculously abolished tomorrow, life expectancy in the US would go up by just over three years, a gain which has quietly happened anyway over the last 20 years in the US, and the last 12 in the UK.
So I think there should be more attention to the quality rather than length of life, particularly through investment in mental health and patient-centred services. This requires far greater research and investment in effective social care, and less focus on searching for high-profile technological fixes.
Spiegelhalter was among the guests at the recent Scientists Meet the Media reception at the Royal Society in London, which is organised with the Science Museum. The event was sponsored by Johnson & Johnson Innovation and supported by the Association of British Science Writers and WIRED.
This article was originally published by WIRED UK
