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This article was taken from the October 2011 issue of Wired magazine. Be the first to read Wired's articles in print before they're posted online, and get your hands on loads of additional content by subscribing online.
I have spent my life working for global tech companies, from Xerox and IBM in the mainframe days of the 80s; to Madge, Lucent and Dell as PCs and networking took off in the 90s; and then more recently T Mobile and Amazon, as I morphed through 3G and into e- and now m-commerce.
As I reflect on the incredible technological and physics changes I have witnessed, I realise I have spent my career observing Moore's Law coming true. The former vice-president of Intel forecast in 1965 that the power of the microprocessor would double every 18 months, and many so-called smart people wrote this off as fanciful.
When I joined IBM in 1981, a mainframe or storage device cost millions of dollars; today the power and capacity of such devices can be harnessed into an iPod, mobile phone or tablet for a fraction of the price and weight.
This breathtaking pace of change is only going to accelerate.
The continuation of Moore's Law will push up capability and prices, and drive miniaturisation forward. Social change and consumer demand are only creating ever greater expectations for cheaper, more compact computing power. This is driven by a number of unarguable trends: \1. New markets. Rapid urbanisation in countries such as India and China and the emerging mega-economies, where ever more educated and wealthy citizens demand all the toys and conveniences that we in the West enjoy. \2. Plentiful gadgetry. Easy-to-use, powerful, mobile devices, led by iPhone and Android phones, are increasingly readily available. New tablets and devices are launched every week, powered by comparatively cheap and ubiquitious mobile broadband based on 3G, 4G and other technologies. \3. Mobile users. Today's younger consumers prefer to bypass desktop PCs and laptops, and instead use their mobile devices in an ever more connected world. In this context, it's inevitable that a mobile device will be the default tool for social networking, ecommerce and the delivery of information in all forms.
To survive the next decade, device suppliers, telecoms service providers, retailers, the Amazons, Googles and Facebooks -- and smaller businesses, too -- will need to put mobile at the heart of all their strategies. If you have just about figured out your company's internet strategy and are sitting back smugly watching your new transactional website, the train may already have left the station.
Brian McBride recently stepped down as CEO of amazon.co.uk
This article was originally published by WIRED UK
