The Electronic Entertainment Expo used to mean lots of big surprising announcements. But as the possibility space of the big-budget videogame industry gets smaller and smaller, is there really any use hoping for surprises anymore?
E3 2013 and the attendant press conferences by the industry's big players, to be held June 10-13 in Los Angeles, will be a highly watched affair for the videogame biz. The last time Microsoft and Sony pulled the wraps off brand-new consoles was over seven years ago. The opportunity for showgoers to get their hands on the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 for the first time will surely be the attraction that causes four-hour lines to stretch throughout the already-cramped halls of the Los Angeles Convention Center.
But these consoles have already been mostly unveiled in events prior to the show: Sony's in February and Microsoft's in May. At this point, will we really learn anything about PS4 and Xbone that fundamentally changes the balance of power between Sony and Microsoft? Will Nintendo really have some piece of news or killer app software that can revitalize Wii U sales? Will the third parties introduce any major new strategies? Or will E3 2013, despite the brand-new technology, just be another mile marker on the same highway we've been riding for the last seven years?
Here's what we expect to see (and not see) next week.
Microsoft
Used games? Don't ask us, ask them. Yesterday, Microsoft finally came out with some concrete details on how Xbox One's game-license system will work. In brief: If Microsoft published the game (Halo but not Call of Duty, e.g.) it will allow you to trade it in to "participating retailers" without either you or the retailer paying an extra fee for this. But third-party publishers like Electronic Arts and Activision (which produce, it should be said, the vast majority of disc-based Xbox 360 games) will have the option to turn used-game trading off entirely or charge an extra fee. So publishing executives should expect a lot of questions from the media about what their specific policies will be.
Games, games, games. One bit of gamer ill will that Microsoft can rectify coming out of its May show is the feeling that Xbox One doesn't have enough games. To that end, there may be some pretend exclusives: Remember when Assassin's Creed was announced, only for PlayStation 3? We might see similar deals go down where multiplatform games are only shown on this or that console.
No price, no date. By putting a price tag on Xbox One, Microsoft introduces the catch into the equation: You can get all this, but it'll cost you this. Sony did that at E3 2006 with PlayStation 3 and the game was all over. For now, Microsoft will introduce Xbox One's suite of games but leave the question of how much it'll cost you for later. This will guarantee it doesn't suffer any more bad news than it has to.
Sony
Games, games, games. Sony may have already shown lots of major PlayStation 4 games at its February event, and there's little reason to suspect we will see very many more of them at E3 – it can't have that many games in development, after all. But expect Sony – which is still something of an underdog in this race – to come out swinging at its press conference with sharp jabs about Xbox One's relative antipathy toward hardcore gamers. The flip side of that coin is that those who are looking for Sony to talk more about the PS4's media-box features will likely come away disappointed.
The box. Sony, unlike Microsoft, has not yet shown anyone what PlayStation 4 will look like. What is, and is not, in the box may give us some more information about what PlayStation 4 can, or can't, do. So look for galleries of PlayStation 4 imagery when Sony inevitably shows the thing, and see if there are any clues.
The Last Guardian. It's been rumored that the long-delayed third game from the Ico team was moved to PlayStation 4. This would make a lot of sense – it has the potential to be much more impactful as an artsy, core-pleasing early killer app for the new hardware than it did as a swan song for PS3. Especially when you consider that PS4 isn't backward compatible, so early adopters – likely to be the same diehards who still care about this game – wouldn't be able to play it on their new machines. This would be a great "one more thing" to end the conference on.
No price, no date. Sony's learned its lesson on this one after "five hundred ninety-nine U.S. dollars."
Used games? I'm curious to see what Sony's going to say during E3 about used games and PlayStation 3. In February its messages were as muddied as Microsoft's; perhaps with a few months' worth of extra work it has gotten its story straight. Now that Microsoft has come clean, perhaps Sony should as well.
Nintendo
Games, games, games we already know about. With Wii U facing a serious software drought, Nintendo has not been shy about talking up a whole mess of upcoming software. We know we'll see Super Smash Bros., the next Mario and Mario Kart, the Zelda: Wind Waker high-def remake and more. With so many games already spilled, is there any room left for surprises at all? We still don't know what Retro, maker of Metroid Prime and Donkey Kong Country Returns, is doing on Wii U. Hope and pray it's something more exciting than Mario Kart.
Wii U, Reconfigured. Reports from moles in GameStop stores suggest that the Basic model of Wii U will be pulled from retail shelves the week after E3. Why? Well, here's an anecdote that might explain it: When I visited a GameStop in January of this year asking if they had Wii U, the clerk said, "Oh, no sorry – we only have the white one." That's right: The Basic set didn't even count as a Wii U to her. That's how much consumers prefer the Deluxe set. Nintendo isn't in a position to drastically lower Wii U's price at this point, but what it can do is eliminate the Basic set and just offer the Deluxe set, lowering the price of the more desirable version to $299.99 from $349.99.
Dragon Quest X. With very few games on Wii U, Nintendo has more of an incentive to try to convince American players to try this. The MMO version of Dragon Quest can't just stay in Japan alone, can it? With Nintendo publishing many of Square Enix's games in the U.S. – it handled Dragon Quest IX on the DS and will publish Bravely Default on 3DS – it's likely that Nintendo will publish this, if anyone does at all.
Third-Party Publishers
Look for Disney to attempt to make a huge splash with its new Skylanders-style game Disney Infinity. I think this company is tired of playing small ball in the console gaming space, and is ready to leverage all of its many mouse powers in an attempt to make this collectibles-based action game the sleeper hit of the holiday season.
Don't get too hopeful that Electronic Arts or Ubisoft will show anything too exciting in their respective press conferences on Monday. We expect they will play it as safe as possible with their next-generation software and talk a lot about mobile and social.
Finally, Square Enix will host a press briefing on Tuesday morning, before the E3 show floor opens, at which it promises to unveil the next generation of Final Fantasy. Considering all of the problems Square Enix has had just releasing the current generation of Final Fantasy – this year is the seventh anniversary of the announcement of the vaporware Final Fantasy Versus XIII for PS3 – we'll be taking every single promise it makes with versus thirteen grains of salt.
The Big Spoiler?
On Monday morning of E3, Apple execs will be in San Francisco for the Worldwide Developers Conference, and will present a keynote address that will run roughly concurrently with Microsoft's Xbox One presentation in Los Angeles. It's far from a sure thing that the iPhone maker will talk about anything related to gaming, but the rumors that it is working on a new version of Apple TV that might include a gaming controller won't go away.
Could the most impactful news in the gaming world next week actually happen 400 miles away from E3?
