RIM's make-or-break operating system, BlackBerry 10, looks spectacular and the Z10 smartphone looks like the company's first handset that people will actually want to buy. But none of this will mean a thing without awesome apps to run on it.
The company, which arguably pioneered the smartphone, is on the ropes and desperately needs BB10 and Z10, both of which launch Wednesday, to be a success. And the key to that will be the ecosystem in which they run.
"If they don't make something of this, then they're in really serious trouble," Gartner analyst Brian Blau told Wired.
Early indications are promising. RIM will have 70,000 apps available at launch -- far more than the 2,000 that Microsoft Windows Phone launched with in November 2010. They range from Facebook and Twitter to top-tier games from EA sports, and the online store will feature media content from the likes of Disney and MGM.
RIM has one chance to get this right. If it blows this, RIM might as well shut down its phone division and focus on cramming QNX into cars. The company ruled the roost in 2008, when it held 44.5 percent of the domestic market. Then came the iPhone. And Android. RIM's market share had dwindled to 8.4 percent in September, with Android leading the market with 52.5 percent and Apple goggling up 34.3 percent. RIM must turn things around, and quickly, if it is to survive.
Here’s the thing, though -- RIM has turned things around on the hardware side.
BB10 is surprisingly outstanding. Based upon my limited exposure to developer phones at events like BlackBerry Jam and what we’ve seen in videos posted by RIM and “leaks” from all over the world, the BlackBerry 10 operating system looks good and works beautifully. It delivers on RIM's promise of a one-handed multitasking machine in a handset that is classic, clean and solid. Top-line features like Flow, Hub and Balance contribute to one the best mobile operating systems on the market. It’s close enough to Android and iOS to be familiar, yet unique without being weird like the Windows Phone tile UI.
So it all comes down to the apps. This is true for any new smartphone, but it’s especially important for RIM, which has nothing to fall back on. Without a deep well of apps to draw from, consumers won’t embrace the new system and BB10 will be DOA. RIM has worked exceedingly hard to get this right, working closely with developers. It has hosted more than 40 developer conferences and seeded thousands of BlackBerry 10 devices to developers to jump start its app ecosystem.
“The level of resources that have put into this is near the top or over the top,” said Blau.
RIM is confident it will deliver the goods. Asked if RIM will announce big-name apps at Wednesday’s BlackBerry 10 event, Martyn Mallick, RIM's VP of global alliances, offered a resounding, "Yes!"
To accomplish this, RIM has offered financial incentives to developers to get them on its new platform. One way is its $10,000 Developer Commitment pledge. If an app is deemed high-quality enough to be designated "Built for BlackBerry" by RIM, if the developer fails to make $10,000 after making at least $1,000 on the app within 12 months, RIM will make up the difference.
"They've put together a program that they had to put together," Blau said. "But at the same time, they did a good job putting together that program."
Filling your app store with tens of thousands of apps is great. But for every Instagram and Letterpress there are thousands of apps that just don’t resonate with consumers. And the apps that do crack the top 100 of an app store are typically from established developers.
Mallick said RIM started talking to established developers even before BlackBerry 10 was announced. "We've really been going out literally knocking on doors. We hadn't announced what the platform is, but we had already started the effort of educating developers."
That dedication paid off. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and Foursquare are baked into BlackBerry 10. According to internal RIM emails obtained by Wired, EA will release "Triple-A" popular games for BlackBerry. For baseball fans, MLB at Bat will be available by opening day. And screenshots of a native Google Talk app was leaked in January. Having Google port apps to BlackBerry 10 would be a huge win for the platform.
The company stills needs to convince companies like Amazon (which wouldn't comment on future plans), Netflix (which has said it has no plans for Blackberry despite a leaked screenshot in December) and Instagram to become a real contender in the smartphone wars.
On Monday, RIM announced new media partners for BlackBerry World, its app store. The online store will rent and sell music and video in the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States from 20th Century Fox, MGM, Disney Pictures, Sony Pictures, Paramount, Warner Bros. and others.
Clearly RIM is doing its best to bolster its ecosystem, something Apple has mastered. And like Apple, RIM is making the whole widget, from OS to hardware to ecosystem. For that reason, BlackBerry 10 will succeed or fail based solely upon RIM's execution. This is RIM's do-or-die moment. If it can pull it off, it'll be the biggest tech comeback since Apple.
