This is part of a series of Wired Q&As with spaceflight experts leading up to SpaceX’s launch. You can read previous interviews here.
We may be at the dawn of a new, private era in space.
On May 19, if all goes well, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket will liftoff the launchpad, bringing the Dragon spacecraft to dock with the International Space Station. Until now, only the U.S., Russia, Japan, and the European Union have accomplished such a goal. If SpaceX succeeds, it will become the first private company to do so.
Wired is interviewing experts in the spaceflight community to discuss the ways this historic launch will impact NASA and mankind’s presence in space. Is it a giant leap, or just a baby step?
Today we have Michael Lopez-Alegria, president of the Commercial Spaceflight Federation, a commercial space advocacy group representing about 50 companies. Prior to this position he was a pilot for the U.S. Navy and worked for nearly 20 years as an astronaut. He flew on three Space Shuttle missions and spent a record 215 days aboard the International Space Station.
Michael Lopez-Alegria is president of the Commercial Spaceflight Federation, a commercial space advocacy group. A former astronaut, he flew on three Space Shuttle missions and spent a record 215 days aboard the International Space Station.Wired: Will this launch be a big game changer for how spaceflight is done?
Lopez-Alegria: I think that’s a tough question and there’s a couple ways to look at it. In practical terms, it’s another step that SpaceX is ready to take. Obviously there have been other companies taking similar steps in commercial spaceflight. So this is one in a series of steps toward a common goal.
Emotionally, it’s a big deal. If it’s a spectacular success, there will be a lot of high fiving and pats on the back, and they will be very well deserved. If it’s a failure, we can take comfort in the fact that it’s just a step. This is a challenging test program and that’s how you learn.
Wired: How do you think this will this impact NASA?
Lopez-Alegria: The COTS program has been in the works for a long time. It is fundamental to the plan for the ISS that we have some capability for launch vehicles other than foreign vehicles. If it works and works well, then NASA will follow on with that program.
COTS is just the first step, it’s a development program. After that, there will be a services contract, and if those two things work out, we will have a new approach to contracting. The milestone-based, space-act-agreement-type of contract will be vindicated and will be looked at as a viable alternative to the traditional cost-plus method.
Wired: How much closer does this bring us to a future where manned spaceflight is cheap and quick?
Lopez-Alegria: It’s a step in that direction. The current price tag is somewhere north of $60 million to go to ISS -- that’s what we pay the Russians. Mr. Musk has said he can do it for $20 million. Even if he’s off by a factor of two, it’s still quite a bit cheaper.
One hopes that if you can increase the amount of launches, it will reduce the cost per launch. You can get economies of scale, and the costs go down. Ideally, that draws more interest in the market, which makes the cost go down, which draws more interest, and so on.
But the barrier right now is really high, and it’s not achievable except for those who are very wealthy.
Wired: What happens if it doesn’t work?
Lopez-Alegria: That will be a setback, but it depends on exactly what kind of a failure it is. If they don’t get some of the more minor things – like if they don’t actually berth to the ISS -- some people may think of that as a failure. But that would still accomplish just where they planned with the original two flights.
If it’s a more spectacular failure then we have to deal with the more emotional reaction. When these forces go in the wrong direction, they tend to be repressive. The emotional effect is out there and we will need to contain it. We will need to remind people that this is still a development program, and every original NASA rocket program that flew had some sort of failure.
Image: SpaceX
