The Windows Phone platform just can't seem to get a break. First, Nokia's Lumia 900 had a difficult launch on Easter Sunday -- bad news considering it's the platform's flagship smartphone. Now, rumors abound that current Windows Phones won't be able to upgrade to Windows Phone 8, codenamed Apollo, when it's released later this year.
Microsoft won't publicly state its position on the matter. They offered Wired the same statement that's been floating around other sites: "We have stated publicly that all apps in our Marketplace today will run on the next version of Windows Phone. Beyond that, we have nothing to share about future releases," a Microsoft spokesperson said.
But others are speaking out for Microsoft, and it's causing confusion. In an interview with Portuguese tech site Zwame, translated by WMPoweruser, Microsoft developer evangelist Nuno Silva stated that all Windows Phones will be able to upgrade to Windows Phone 8.
On the flip side, The Verge reports that sources close to Microsoft say a Windows Phone Apollo update will not be available to current Windows Phones, including the most recent Nokia Lumia 900.
This feels an awful lot like Apple rumor reports, where nobody knows the truth except the company itself. And the path of secrecy is likely to hurt rather than help Windows Phone.
"People like Microsoft because they're more open. If they turn out to be the same as Apple, it’s unfortunate," Gartner analyst Ken Dulaney told Wired. "They’re really hurting themselves by not explaining what they’re doing."
Since a Microsoft employee has already spoken out, it would be in Microsoft's best interest to either confirm or deny Silva's statement. But there's another possibility in play: Microsoft could be keeping mum on the situation because it hasn't actually solidified its Windows Phone 8 upgrade game plan.
Still, current and potential Windows Phone users could become wary of purchasing any Windows Phone because of the reports.
"Microsoft does have to get ahead of this one. Too many people will pick up on the rumors and it can become a whisper campaign," Gartner analyst Steve Kleynhans told Wired. "It can affect the sales of Nokia's Lumia phones. The absense of any real information will make people think the worst."
So for a moment, let's think the worst. Let's say that the latest reports are true, and current Windows Phones won't be able update to Apollo. What, then, are the ramifications to the Windows Phone platform? For answers, we can look to the Android space, where many device owners have to wait months before getting the latest OS. Indeed, update delays are a serious complaint among Android users, so just imagine how current Windows Phone users will feel if denied updates entirely.
"If Microsoft doesn't make updates available to current phones, they would be in opposition to vendor patterns," Dulaney said. "Microsoft would have to be in a window of acceptability, or face potential negative publicity."
Strangely, the Gartner firm doesn't have a consistent opinion on the matter. Gartner analyst Michael Gartenberg told Wired this: "I don’t think it’s going to affect anything. This is inside baseball for technology writers and readers and enthusiasts. Consumers are buying based on today. People bought iPad 2s right up until the new iPad was released. In the end of the day, it becomes a non-issue."
