The newest U.S. deal with North Korea to halt its nuclear program boils down to this: hundreds of thousands of tons of food for a promise. You've heard this one before.
North Korea has, once again, agreed to suspend uranium enrichment work at its main nuclear facility, Yongbyon, as well as any testing work, including missile tests. In exchange, the Norks want 264,550 tons of food aid. To verify that the North Koreans aren't illicitly enriching uranium in violation of the deal, they've also agreed to let the International Atomic Energy Agency resume inspections.
The State Department is setting expectations as low as possible. "Important, if limited, progress" was how spokeswoman Victoria Nuland put it in a statement. That's because, as the Council on Foreign Relations' Micah Zenko notes, Pyongyang has made variations on this promise four times in the past 18 years. And North Korea isn't rolling any of its recent nuclear advances back; it's putting them on a time-out.
Still, at the risk of credulity, this is the first major diplomatic decision made by Kim Jong-un since the 20-something took power following the death of his bellicose father, Kim Jong-il. (Well, arguably the second. The first may have been firing a missile to commemorate Kim Jong-il's death.) Now comes the inevitable Kremlinology about whether the younger Kim is open to diplomatic suasion away from North Korea's nuclear belligerence.
But it's not just the State Department that's reacting cautiously to the North's newest food-for-nukes deal. Over at U.N. Dispatch, Mark Leon Goldberg says North Korean nuclear diplomacy falls into a "predictable cycle," with Pyongyang inevitably violating its promises even while "people like me hail the agreement." And Josh Rogin at Foreign Policy reports that the North's official statement makes it seem like Pyongyang gets the food first and then comes "discussion of issues concerning the lifting of sanctions on [North Korea] and provision of light water reactors," although in fairness, it's possible that statement was merely to help Kim save face.
South Korea, at least, doesn't care. It reacted positively to the newest U.S.-North Korea deal -- which, after all, beats missile exchanges. In the meantime, Pyongyang can look forward to shipments of Plumpy'nut, while Kim Jong-un kicks off his bed to claim the 'Arms Control Person of the Year' title that mysteriously eluded his father.
