NATO commanders are growing frustrated over the resilience of Moammar Gadhafi. With an open-ended war against the Libyan dictator stretching into its third month, some are looking to step up the bombing. And they just got an unexpected opportunity: prosecutors for an international court are seeking warrants for Gadhafi's arrest as a war criminal.
Secure in the belief that he can remain in power despite NATO air raids and the military ineptitude of his opposition, Gadhafi's taken to taunting the transatlantic alliance. "I live in a place where you can't get to and kill me," Gadhafi boasted in a radio broadcast this weekend. That place is most likely some bunker, but he meant that he resides "in the hearts of millions" of Libyans. OK then.
The International Criminal Court may call Gadhafi's bluff. Its prosecutors have asked the court toissue a warrant for the arrest of Gadhafi, his son and a key aide on war crimes charges. If the court approves, the Wall Street Journal explains, Gadhafi's arrest would be enforceable "by all members of the United Nations." Like, say, those bombing him to enforce a United Nations mandate.
Not every ICC warrant gets enforced. Just ask Omar Bashir, another indicted war criminal who remains president of Sudan. But when the ICC issued its warrant for Bashir in 2009, no coalition of nations was at war with him over Darfur. The opportunities for NATO might make the warrant more than a piece of paper.
Except that any anticipated warrant is as much a challenge to NATO as it is an opportunity for it. The leaders of the U.S., U.K. and France have vowed to fight until Gadhafi's out of power. But they've also ruled out toppling Gadhafi with their own ground troops, for fear of "owning" a post-Gadhafi Libya. Want to arrest Gadhafi? You can't do that with a smart bomb.
Yet top brass at NATO are starting to chafe at the war's stalemated pace. Since it took command of the war on March 31, NATO has flown over 2650 strike sorties against Gadhafi's ground forces and weaponry. Now the U.K.'s top general has said it's time to consider another escalation.
Right now, NATO bombs regime targets in Tripoli under the pretext of going after "command and control" facilities, as officially, taking out Gadhafi isn't a military objective. Gen. Sir David Richards thinks that needs to change. "If we want to increase the pressure on Gaddafi's regime," Richards told the Daily Telegraph, "then we need to give serious consideration to increasing the range of targets we can hit. ... [T]he only solution to this conflict is for Gaddafi to go."
Still, Roberts didn't contemplate sending in ground troops to get rid of him. If the ICC approves the warrants, NATO will come under immediate pressure to enforce them. Some in NATO, like Roberts, are looking to end the Libya war as quickly as possible. Others are going to blanch at committing NATO troops to hunt for Gadhafi in Tripoli. As much as a looming arrest warrant might offer an opportunity to escalate the war, it might also give Gadhafi a script for his next radio broadcast -- one that dares NATO to come and get him.
Photo: Flickr/AlJazeeraEnglish
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