It doesn't make much sense, at first glance, for the Egyptian government to launch its huge crackdown against dissidents right as it turns Internet and cellular communications back on. But the propaganda that's rapidly emerging from the regime of Hosni Mubarak actually has a clear message, one that other Mideast dictators can embrace and that's ready for broadcast: this revolution is already snuffed out.
Sherif Mansour, a senior program officer with the human rights group Freedom House, sees an underlying message beneath everything the Mubarak regime is saying and doing: "old-line thuggery," as he tells Danger Room. Yesterday the regime sent plainclothes goons into Cairo's Nisour Square to hurl rocks, fling Molotovs and trample people underneath Camel hoofs. Today it continued its violent clashes, but added a new twist: beating and detaining dozens of foreign reporters. All this has worked for Mubarak in the past.
But while he harassed independent foreign journalists, his subordinates made Thursday their most talkative day since the protests began last week. And that hints at a propaganda strategy: convincing Egypt, and the world, that Mubarak has broken the back of the protest movement.
Part of that message was a superficial reconciliation. In a press conference, Ahmed Shafik, the new prime minister, praised the "youth" and vowed to investigate just how Tahrir Square erupted into violence yesterday. And in a very rare interview with state TV, Omar Suleiman, the former spymaster turned vice president, told the youth of Egypt, "we thank you for what you did. You were the spark" for the "reform" Mubarak promised.
But there was a much harder edge to Suleiman's comments, the first he gave in his new job: he declared the revolt over. Mubarak "has responded to all lawful demands," Suleiman said, by agreeing not to run for another presidential term. The legitimate youth movement has been "infiltrated" by shadowy figures with "foreign agendas," who will be "held accountable and penalized." There is nothing left for protesters to do but "please disperse and go home."
The alternative is also clear: a military confrontation. The Army "has a new mandate," Suleiman said, "to protect citizens from thugs." On Al Jazeera, an activist in Tahrir Square, Salma Eltarzi, called that threat "a crime of war."
It's also a classic act of thuggery. For decades, Mubarak has predicated his repression on protecting Egypt from internal subversion and foreign-directed chaos, so today's messages indicate he's going back to the well. If images of the brutal beatings are broadcast around the world -- most foreign journalists have been released, after all -- it underscores his willingness to reject his Western allies' demands to stop the violence, and it gives other Mideast regimes facing their own internal unrest a chance to "learn some of the repressive techniques," Mansour says. Once again, Egypt returns to a place atop the Arab world -- in spite of the millions demanding democracy in the region.
Mubarak was happy to make these points himself. Speaking for his first interview since the crisis began, Mubarak told ABC's Christiane Amanpour that he can't step down from office, because it would mean chaos. He says he told President Obama, "you don't understand the Egyptian culture and what would happen if I step down now." Another dictatorial classic: L'etat, c'est moi.
Tomorrow is going to be another big day in Egypt. Anti-government demonstrators have demanded that tomorrow be Mubarak's "Day of Departure." Suleiman's implicit threat hangs in the air. The Committee to Protect Journalists and the International Crisis Group are just a few of the human rights and civil society organizations denouncing the regime. It seems fair to say that Mubarak and the protesters are each waiting for the other to blink.
Mansour thinks Mubarak will crack first. The brutality "was a tactical error for them in the first place." The regime has made several: shutting down the Internet just "gave people a reason not to be at home, or watching things from their computer," giving the decentralized protests "the advantage of being unpredictable." Now, it's inviting greater internal opposition and international condemnation.
The regime's propaganda indicates that it's confident -- or at least wants to look confident. But the longer that protests rage across Egypt, the weaker it ultimately appears. And Mubarak fears looking weak worst of all.
Photo: Flickr/AlJazeeraEnglish
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