Need another indication that July 2011 is going to come and go without substantial troop reductions? Take a look at Gen. David Petraeus' brand new letter to his troops and civilians in Afghanistan about the state of the war. There's a lot of talk about the "hard work" to expect in 2011, and absolutely none about troop withdrawals.
On tap for the next year is a lot of fighting, Petraeus writes in a letter published today on the website of NATO forces in Afghanistan. The "security bubble" protecting Kabul needs to be "expanded to neighboring provinces." Protected areas that NATO forces took back from the Taliban in Helmand and Kandahar provinces have to be "solidified, joined and expanded." Same goes for "areas of improved security in the east and west." Insurgent gains in the "north and mountainous northeast must be halted and reversed." And NATO forces have to support "Afghan-led efforts to establish governance that can earn the support of the people," including anti-corruption pushes.
In other words: all around Afghanistan, 2011 is going to be a difficult year, characterized by a tough fight. Petraeus has already intensified the war since assuming command in July, with increases in air strikes and raids by Special Operations Forces; tanks and rockets in Helmand and Kandahar; knocking down empty Afghan villages that the Taliban turned into bombfests; and accelerated development of Afghan security forces. His letter shows every indication of maintaining that tempo this year.
So perhaps it's not surprising that there's no mention of July 2011 -- what the Obama team used to call its "inflection point" for transitioning security to Afghan control. Instead, Petraeus writes that the war got "a further boost" by NATO countries committing to support "President Karzai's goal of Afghan forces being in the lead throughout Afghanistan by the end of 2014." (Some want a "strategic partnership" with Afghanistan "beyond 2014" as well, he notes.)
Petraeus has been up front for months about interpreting July 2011 to give his war strategy maximum flexibility. He told Danger Room in August that he'd seek to "reinvest" scheduled troop departures -- moving units from less-dangerous areas to more-dangerous ones and "thinning out" the U.S. presence in Afghan districts and provinces, rather than pulling up stakes. His commander in eastern Afghanistan, Maj. Gen. John Campbell, told Danger Room that the relatively secure provinces of Bamiyan, Parwan and Panjshir may transition to Afghan control by July.
In the letter, Petraeus gives maximum praise to NATO and Afghan troops for "halt[ing] a downward security spiral in much of the country and revers[ing] it in some areas of grave importance." NATO forces now have the initiative, he asserts, and inflicted "enormous losses" on the Taliban and its allies in the Haqqani network. Petraeus floats that there are "numerous reports of unprecedented discord" amidst the Taliban's Quetta Shura leadership -- although a much-lauded effort for the Afghan government to negotiate with one of those leaders fell through when he turned out to be a fraud.
That fits with Petraeus' recent focus on killing and capturing Taliban leaders. The New York Times quotes him as recently saying, "We’ve got our teeth in the enemy’s jugular now, and we’re not going to let go." Judging from Petraeus' letter, he's not looking to send many troops home at a time like that.
Photo: ISAF
See Also:
- Petraeus: Here's My Afghan Redeployment Strategy
- Afghan Ultraviolence: Petraeus Triples Air War
- New U.S. Plan in Afghanistan: 'Awe and Shock'
- East Afghan Plan: Choke the 'Rat Lines,' Secure the Roads
- U.S. to Leave Afghanistan in 2011 2014 Never
- If Afghan Troops Can't Read Cat in the Hat, This War Is Screwed ...
