A prototype stealth fighter, years ahead of American predictions. A "carrier-killer" missile reaching its initial operating phases. An aggressive year in the western Pacific. These recent Chinese military developments have a lot of U.S. analysts freaking out. But the chief of Naval intelligence wants everyone to take a deep breath.
Vice Adm. Jack Dorsett tells reporters it's "not a surprise" that China's developed a stealth aircraft, known as the J-20, pictures of which hit the internet late last month. Nor is he especially worried about the J-20: "It's not clear to me when it's going to become operational."
Dorsett seemed a bit more concerned about the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, a weapon that recently reached an initial operational capability, at least according to one U.S. admiral. "The missile system itself is truly competent and capable," Dorsett says. In theory, the missiles can now hit a moving ship. But they may not be all that accurate, yet. Dorsett isn't exactly having a meltdown over the missiles.
"How proficient they are, what that level of probability is, we don't know, and frankly I'm guessing that they don't know," Dorsett says. "They've probably simulated this in laboratories, they've certainly test-fired it over land, but to our knowledge they have not test-fired it over water at maneuvering targets."
But if the goal is to assess the growth of Chinese military might, Dorsett contends, looking at China's new military hardware misses the broader picture. The real issue is how well all the different Chinese military elements knit together, much as the U.S.' do. "I don't see China with those capabilities right now," Dorsett says. "I see them delivering individual components, individual weapons systems, those things are being developed. But until they acquire that proficiency, the question is how competent are they going to be."
What's more, China's true "game-changing capabilities" are more likely to be in the area of laser blasts, cyberattacks and "counter-space capabilities," Dorsett says: "That's a greater concern from me than some of the other hardware-driven or kinetic capabilities that they're developing." Chinese defense theorists argue that space-fired lasers can blunt the U.S.'s conventional naval power, and last year, China reached parity with the U.S. in annual space-bound rocket launches. Then there's China's hacking proficiency, which Washington eyes very attentively. But Dorsett declined to say that China has an advantage over America in any of these areas, merely that they're moving aggressively – like the U.S. is – to develop them.
It's true that the U.S. "pretty consistently" underestimates when China can bring its new weapons online, Dorsett said. And it's clear to him that the People's Liberation Army Navy wishes to be a "regional power" in the near-term, eventually developing "global implications," and has the economic might to make good on its aspirations. (Expect an expansion of Chinese aircraft carrier-building, for instance.) With Defense Secretary Robert Gates heading to China this weekend and Chinese President Hu Jintao coming to Washington on January 19, a central question for both countries is how they can co-exist as major players in the western Pacific.
But for now, Dorsett's metric is when China's entire military can work together seamlessly and well. "I want to get pretty right on that about when they get operationally proficient," he said. "We're not seeing that. We're seeing it in individual elements of warfare, but not across the joint spectrum of warfighting."
H/t on the J-20 video: Stephen Trimble
See Also:
