Don't pour out any liquor for the Marines' swimming tank. The Marines have reacted to the death of their next-generation "Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle" landing craft by asking for a cheaper version. Only the problem is that cheap missiles and tanks may make the next-next generation New Amphibious Vehicle irrelevant before it ever gets Marines to a beach.
The trouble with the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle, killed by Defense Secretary Robert Gates last week, was the "fiscal environment," Lt. Gen. George Flynn, commander of the Combat Development Command, told reporters this morning. In other words, its ballooning, $13 billion total cost -- and not the landing craft itself. What's now being called the New Amphibious Vehicle will still have to bring Marines ashore in an armored, armed tracked vehicle that can maneuver on a beach against an enemy.
The important thing is keeping the costs down. "We have to nail the requirements right at the front end," Flynn said, in the "90-95 percent range," so the Marines aren't going back and forth with the manufacturer for expensive upgrades.
Flynn doubted that the New Amphibious Vehicle would "be operating from further out" at sea than the 25 nautical miles its predecessor swam -- even though the Navy's concerned about the brushback "anti-access" missile tech that push its ships further from the shore. (All Flynn specified was that the landing craft would have to go from "beyond the horizon.") He doesn't want the New Amphibious Vehicle to be heavier than the EFV's 38 tons, since increasing the bulkiness of its armor will reduce its mobility. The Marines may seek upgrades on "new firepower [and] armor suspension technology." But for the most part, Flynn said, the service is "not going to have to plow old ground."
That may explain how the Marines are almost ready to ask industry what it can design for the New Amphibious Vehicle. Flynn said the Marines' request will be ready by the end of the month or the first week in February, along with requests to upgrade its ancient Amphibious Assault Vehicle fleet with new digital communications tools as a gap-filler and accelerate the Marine Personnel Carrier. He hesitated to give a date for when the New Amphibious Vehicle could be ready before he talks with potential manufacturers, but said that he would like it to be ready in "under eight years."
But eight years is a long time when considering the proliferation of missiles that make it easier to defend a beach from the arrival of amphibious vehicles. And the rise of cheap, homemade bombs makes it easier to stop them once they get ashore. That leaves two options. "You would have to think about beginning the assault from a distance greater than 25 miles, or beyond the EFV’s assault range," says Andrew Krepinevich of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Or you'd have to look at "intense battlefield prep," using a combination of air assault, cyberattacks and missile attacks before landing the Marines.
And raises a basic question: is coming from the sea the only way to storm a beach these days? Or is coming from the air as well going to be what distinguishes tomorrow's beach charges from the Inchon landing of six decades ago?
"The goal is to so erode the enemy defenses that you can establish air superiority over the assault point and mount a successful attack from well within the 25-mile zone," Krepinevich continues. "If you can't, well, then you're back at the more modest capability."
It's not like Flynn thinks coming from the sea is the only way to take the beaches of the future. The Marines' V-22 tiltrotor aircraft could fly behind an enemy's defenses, he said, to "go where enemy’s not -- [to] get behind them or come over the horizon and use the sea as a maneuver space." But there's no backing off a new tracked amphibious vehicle as a key component of future invasions.
Accordingly, it didn't sound like the Combat Development Command leader wanted to see the EFV go. Asked if he recommended its cancellation, Flynn simply replied, "I believe that the program is unaffordable."
Photo: U.S. Marine Corps
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