It sure seems like grounds for a freak-out. During his visit to China, Defense Secretary Robert Gates abruptly warned that North Korea will have a nuclear tipped-missile capable of hitting the west coast of the U.S. within five years. But before rushing for the air raid shelters, it's worth remembering that the North's missiles have been problem-plagued for years -- while U.S. analysts perennially judge that Pyongyang's fearsome intercontinental ballistic missile is just around the corner.
Now it's Gates' turn. "I don't think it's an immediate threat, but on the other hand I don't think it's a five-year threat," he said, in what the New York Times terms a "major new assessment."
That would be a serious technical leap for Pyongyang. In theory, their Taepodong family of liquid-fueled missiles can hit Alaska with a one-ton payload and California with a half-ton payload -- if everything works correctly. But the program hasn't shown much success so far. A 2006 test of the Taepodong-2 lasted 40 seconds before the missile exploded. A follow-on test in 2009 failed to reach orbit, according to U.S. Northern Command. And as the Times notes, there's little sign that North Korea has been able to develop a nuclear warhead that can fit on the Taepodong, and the size of the warhead affects its accuracy.
In 1998, a commission chaired by Donald Rumsfeld concluded that a "rogue state" like North Korea could have a ballistic missile capable of hitting the U.S. in "as little as five years" -- that is, by 2003. *Just another five years * is the missile-threat equivalent of the Friedman Unit, the meme that says the U.S. is always just another six months away from a decisive moment in one of its wars.
Last year, Dennis Blair, then the American top intelligence official, didn't even mention North Korea's missile program as a threat to the U.S. during his congressional testimony. Instead, he described the North's "export of ballistic missiles and associated materials" (.pdf) as a destabilizing factor for "the security environment in East Asia." (Reports of North Korean missile aid to Iran are in dispute.)
Secretive and militarized North Korea is one of the toughest intelligence targets in the world. Both the spy services and their critics have misjudged the North's weapons programs: while the Obama administration denies it, the U.S. appears not to have known about the rapidity with which Pyongyang is developing a uranium-based nuke.
Maybe there's a radical change in intelligence assessments. We should have a sense next month, when James Clapper, the new director of national intelligence, gives Congress his unclassified assessment of the threats America faces. But it's possible that Gates is, uh, stretching the evidence as a pressure tactic on the Chinese, to underscore how seriously the U.S. wants Beijing to rein in its North Korean client.
Image: California Literary Review
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