It's an article of faith in naval circles that China will inevitably emerge as one of the world's great maritime powers. But a secret plan by a Chinese government agency suggests that Beijing is taking a major seafaring step forward.
Japan's Asahi Shimbun cites a report from the State Oceanic Administration saying that China will complete construction of its first aircraft carrier by 2014, something the government never previously admitted. Constructed primarily at Shanghai, the carrier is supposed to displace between 50,000 and 60,000 tons. And it's part of an even larger effort by the People's Liberation Army Navy to "build itself up as a maritime power" during the next decade: a nuclear powered carrier is supposed to be completed by 2020. All of that should be taken with a grain of salt, but navy experts generally consider building a carrier to be well within Chinese capabilities.
The U.S. military has little visibility into the plans of its Chinese counterparts. Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently urged the creation of a regularized military channel between the two nations to reduce ambiguities. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is heading to China next month for the first in a series of top-level U.S.-Chinese official visits scheduled for 2011.
One measurement of the visitations' success, from the U.S. perspective, will be for China to be more open about its plans. The State Oceanic Administration, Asahi reports, says that the military decided in secret last year to build up to a "mid-level maritime power" by 2020, able to "counter challenges and threats at sea," a goal the carriers would certainly support. Elements within the military argued for keeping the carrier-building secret, so as not to spawn a wave of speculation in the region about a Chinese threat.
China got more assertive at sea this year, sending its destroyers, frigates and subs throughout eastern Pacific waters and demonstrating complex missions like mid-air refueling by its naval pilots. The U.S.'s goal is to maintain universal maritime access throughout Asia, something it fears Chinese naval might could restrict.
Naval analyst Raymond Pritchett isn't so concerned about the first Chinese aircraft carrier, figuring it to be long overdue. Given the health of China's shipbuilding industry, Pritchett forecasts that over the next five years, "we can expect steady construction of conventional and nuclear submarines, more coastal combat vessels, a large block of maritime patrol vessels, steady construction of frigate sized surface combatants, steady construction of amphibious vessels, and now steady construction of aircraft carriers."
Matching China ship-for-ship would be a "losing proposition," Pritchett continues, advising instead to inject "some serious focus onto our larger surface combatant force and finding ways to responsibly add value to our national aircraft carrier, amphibious vessel, and littoral combat ship investments." And then there's always the ship-killers.
Photo: China Daily
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