Welcome to the new peak of America's remote-controlled war in Pakistan. On Wednesday, U.S. drones hit their third target in 24 hours and their 12th attack in the last 13 days. That's the highest number of robotic attacks in a single month since the drone campaign began. And there's still a half-month to go.
The drones' targeting decisions are highly classified. But there are indications that behind the lethal barrage, there may be a peaceful motive: helping bring about a negotiated settlement to the Afghanistan war.
According to local reports, the drones fired up to 12 missiles in the latest attack, killing as many as 14 people. If those estimates are right, it brings September's death toll to 60. The drones have killed up to 600 people in 2010 in 66 strikes. With two and a half months left in the year, the rate of robotic attacks has nearly doubled since 2008.
The latest drone strikes have largely targeted the militant networks led by Jalaluddin and Sirajuddin Haqqani. Unnamed American officials tell the Associated Press that the attacks are part of a "hammer-and-anvil" campaign, with forces led by Joint Special Operations Command hitting the Haqqanis in Afghanistan while the drones fire off their missiles over Pakistan.
However, "neither the special operations raids nor the missile strikes on the Pakistan side of the border appear to have degraded the militants' ability to fill the ranks of the slain," the AP reports.
Reducing the Haqqanis' numbers may not be the only goal, however. And here's where the drone campaign may take a very strange turn.
The U.S., the British, and the Afghan governments are quietly, carefully looking at ways to negotiate with the various insurgent groups in the region. Hezb-e Islami leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and members of the Taliban are thought to be open to these talks. One of the biggest impediments: Pakistan, America's putative ally in the region. The Pakistanis refuse to be cut out of any deal. So they arrest Taliban leaders who might be willing to negotiate. And they back the Haqqani network, as a way to keep the insurgency boiling.
Time and time again, U.S. officials have asked their counterparts in Islamabad to go after Haqqani safe havens in Pakistani's tribal area. No dice. So instead, the U.S. uses its special operations forces and its drones to put pressure on the Haqqanis. The weaker they get, the logic goes, the more likely they will be willing to deal.
The U.S. also holds out hope that the Pakistanis will step in to broker a peace deal between the Taliban and the Karzai government, allowing the U.S. a face-saving way out of Afghanistan. But our intelligence sources tell us that the Pakistanis have quietly communicated to the Americans that they view the Haqqanis as an insurance policy against Indian influence in Afghanistan, particularly in the eastern areas where Sirajuddin's band of fanatics hang out. Degrading the Haqqani fighters is one thing; wiping them out is diplomatically problematic.
Of course, there could be other motivations behind this latest surge in drone strikes. And it's hardly a sure thing that drone strikes will weaken the Haqqani network. According to the Long War Journal, they've been hit 46 times before, and show no signs of letting up.
Photo: via defence.pk; illo: Long War Journal
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