For most of its more-than-decade-long existence, Somalia's Al Shabab Islamic group was a threat only to the weak, American-backed Transitional Federal Government ... and to everyday Somalis caught in the crossfire as Shabab fought to take over this lawless East African country. If anything, Shabab was a terror importer, drawing in recruits from the U.S., Yemen and other countries. It's for that reason that many observers, myself included, downplayed the threat Al Shabab posed to other countries.
All that changed on Sunday when two bombs exploded in Kampala, the capital of Somalia's neighbor Uganda. The blasts, targeting a restaurant and a rugby club, killed 74 people and wounded many more as they were watching the World Cup finale. Shabab promptly claimed responsibility. The attack was retaliation for Uganda sending peacekeepers to support the moderate Islamist TFG, a Shabab spokesman said. "The explosions in Kampala were only a minor message to them," Sheik Ali Mohamud Rage said. "We will target them everywhere if Uganda does not withdraw from our land."
To be fair, Uganda's troops in Somalia aren't your typical, lightly-armed peacekeepers. Equipped with tanks, mortars and machine guns, they provide the heavy firepower that allows the TFG to hold onto a handful of key positions in Mogadishu. And Rage's claim that the Ugandans are "massacring" Somalia -- there's some truth to that. Mortar and cannon duels between the peacekeepers, pictured, and Shabab fighters account for many of the hundreds of civilian combat deaths that occur annually in Mogadishu.
That Shabab was able to organize a complex attack outside Somalia's borders is worrying, to say the least. Uganda has been a relative safe haven for Somalis fleeing the fighting in their own country. After Shabab assassins wounded my friend, the Somali radio reporter Ahmed Omar Hashi, we were able to evacuate him to Kampala. There he joined thousands of Somali refugees awaiting resettlement abroad. Sunday's attacks are likely to result in even tighter border controls -- and less opportunity for civilians to escape Somalia's slow unraveling.
The attacks are unlikely to cow Kampala. "Al Shabab is the reason why we should stay in Somalia," Ugandan spokesman Lt. Col. Felix Kulaigye said. And covert U.S. operations targeting Shabab and other Islamic extremists in Somalia will surely escalate, now that the threat is clearer.
Photo: David Axe
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