The START treaty between the United States and Russia expires in early December and there's no chance that we'll have a signed and ratified replacement in the next three weeks. Not to worry, say Obama officials. The two sides will work out some kind of "bridge" agreement in the meantime. START allows for weapons inspectors from each country to remain in the other; with a bridge agreement, that will continue.
Or maybe not, says Pavel Podvig over at Russianforces.org. According to Podvig, it will be relatively easy for the U.S,, technically, to write a legally binding bridge agreement. Sen. Richard Lugar has already proposed a bill that would extend privileges to Russian inspectors in the U.S. until a new treaty comes. But it may not be be so simple on the Russian side, where the law in this area is quite murky and where it's not clear if such a temporary provision could, or will, be written in a way that's legally binding.
According to Podvig, "the Russian military are counting the days until December 5th, when the U.S. inspectors will have to leave the Votkinsk plant. They also can't wait to see the end of some START reporting requirements - notifications of mobile missile deployments have emerged as a particularly sore point."
Podvig adds that the Russia would love to deploy its newish RS-24 missiles when the American cops are off the beat. The START treaty bans increasing the throw-weight or power of old missile systems, including Russian Topol-Ms. Since the RS-24s are essentially a rebranding of old Topol-Ms, they should be strictly limited. But with no one paying attention, they won't be. (Think if the FDA strictly limited the sale of "chicken wings" and then, when the FDA shut down for the summer, a restaurant chain introduced "buffalo wings" and claimed they were unregulated.)
When legal situations are murky, trust is often what makes things work. And while Obama and Medvedev may be building useful trust on matters such as this, that doesn't mean the Russian generals have come around. Still, I remain hopeful that a genuine, binding bridge agreement will be worked out. But this is another reminder that arms control negotiations aren't just about the big-picture debates. They are also very much about the details. And military men do love their nukes.
[Photo: Whitehouse.gov]
