If you think the Afghanistan war effort was screwed up before, just you wait. President Hamid Karzai has won, by default, a second term as president after his main rival decided the elections were too corrupt to run in.
That means Afghanistan avoids a messy, logistically challenging runoff vote. But it also leaves a kleptocratic system intact -- and raises serious questions about what exactly the United States and NATO are supposed to do next in Afghanistan. One of the primary goals in a counterinsurgency campaign to legitimize and win support for the local government. Which is kind of tricky, when the head of that government presided over a sham election.
A short recap: Afghan election officials today canceled a second-round presidential vote after the withdrawal of Karzai's challenger, Abdullah Abdullah. Over the weekend, Abdullah dropped out of the race, telling reporters a "transparent election is not possible" in Afghanistan; Karzai responded by telling Radio Azadi that he oh-so-sincerely wished that his rival had stayed in the race.
"It would have been to the benefit of all of us," Karzai said. "In any case, he is free to make up his own mind."
The transcript of the interview with Karzai is definitely worth reading. As it happens, Karzai actually met with Abdullah before the announcement, a meeting the incumbent described as "a private talk between the two of us." I'd love to know what transpired there: Was some kind of deal made? Did Afghan CEO former U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad just happen to be hanging around the presidential palace?
Either way, Karzai's "win" raises a whole host of questions about U.S. decisionmaking on Afghanistan: Why invest so much in elections that were clearly flawed? Why did we keep so many bad actors on our payroll for so long? And then -- just as Karzai is about to win another term -- why "accidentally" leak compromising information about Karzai's brother?
The scrapping of this weekend's vote and the confirmation of Karzai may speed a decision on troop levels by President Barack Obama. But the administration's new Afghanistan strategy may also require working around -- as well as working with -- Karzai's administration.
A big part of a big part of Abdullah's platform was a pledge to devolve power to Afghanistan's regions -- and take power out of the president's hands. At present, the president directly appoints provincial governors and district chiefs. Abdullah and his backers argued that decentralizing power would create an Afghanistan that is more democratic, and more accountable.
Now reform seems like a more distant prospect. It will be interesting to see if the United States pushes for changes to Afghanistan's political system as a rising insurgency continues to threaten security.
[PHOTO: Wikimedia]____
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