Ahead of talks on Iran's nuclear program, chatter in Washington has turned to possible economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic.
President Barack Obama has already warned of "sanctions that bite," and Reuters reports that the White House is considering a range of options, including choking off gasoline supplies, to force Iran to come clean on its nuclear facilities. Iran may be oil-rich, but it lacks refining capacity -- and sanctions talk is also also convenient way to push Tehran's buttons while diplomatic options are being pursued.
But would sanctions work? When Sharon and I visited Iran in February 2007, the big political issue of the moment wasn't Iran's nuclear push -- or the possibility of attack against its nuclear facilities -- it was the economy.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ran for office on a promise to improve the living standards of ordinary Iranians, but prices for basic staples were stubbornly rising. The government was even weighing whether to introduce gasoline rationing, a measure designed to eliminate subsidies that cost the government billions of dollars a year. The proposed measure would have hit ordinary Iranians square in the pocketbook (and would have made it much costlier to fuel up their Paykans). So gasoline sanctions, perhaps, might have a dramatic effect.
Limited sanctions, however, have thus far failed to stop Tehran's nuclear ambitions. During our 2007 visit, we spoke with a scientist who boasted openly that Iran had been able to advance its capabilities in spite of them. Still, the folks at All Our Might argue that sanctions now would come at crucial time: "The Iran regime is hurting right now. Iranian President Ahmadinejad stole an election in June. Everyone knew it, and massive street protests followed. This has left his regime in a precariously fragile spot - cross the electorate again, especially with economic penalties, and expect more headaches if not curtains."
Or would it? In an analysis for Reuters, Alistair Lyon offered this take: "Despite the risk of harsher sanctions, Iranian leaders may feel more confident dealing with matters of national pride, prestige and military deterrence than with the internal schisms exposed by the disputed presidential vote in June."
Put differently: Tired of those nettlesome pro-democracy activists with their fancy Twitter updates and their green banners? There may be nothing like a little nuclear standoff with the West to divert domestic attention away from a crackdown.
[Photo: President.ir]
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