The switch to digital television will be final Friday as television stations nationwide shut off analog broadcasting. Yet about 2.8 million American households, or 2.5 percent of the television market, are likely to see snow on their TV screens instead of *Law Order *or House re-runs, according to research firm Nielsen.
"Some people wait till the last minute for everything no matter what," says Scott Wallsten, senior fellow at the think-tank Technology Policy Institute. "This means there are some folks there waiting to make a last-minute dash to the store."
The government had set Feb. 17 as the initial deadline for the switch to digital transmission. But that led to fears that millions of couch potatoes would be left in the cold as funding for converter box coupons that can make analog TV sets digital-ready could fall short. Just weeks before the February deadline, the government postponed the transition by four months, with June 12 as the new cutoff.
That decision may have paid off. In the last three months, the number of households that are completely unready for the change has been cut in half to 2.8 million homes from 5.8 million, says Nielsen. "Given the importance that television plays in the day-to-day life of most people, we expect that most of the remaining unready homes will take the necessary steps to get ready once the stations make the final switch to digital transmission," says Sara Erichson, President Media Client Services, Nielsen.
The National Association of Broadcasters says consumers are taking steps — slowly — to get DTV ready. The group estimates 2.2 million households are still unprepared for the transition. About 3 percent of those have applied for or already received converter-box coupons from the federal government. Many, while aware of the transition, have not yet taken any action to prepare for it, they say.
"In a free society, we would never expect to see 100 percent consumer participation in a technological change like the digital television transition," says Jonathan Collegio, NAB vice president of digital television. "Some viewers will make a conscious decision to not upgrade, and that is their choice. Over time, however, we expect many of these viewers to eventually make the switch."
The process of getting a digital converter box, though, has been fraught with challenges. The converter boxes can cost between $40 and $80. But a government-issued $40 coupon (limit of two for each household) can subsidize almost all or most of the cost. In January, the coupon program faced a shortage of funds but a government bailout brought more money to the process.
More than $1.5 billion was earmarked for digital-converter coupons. Still, young adults, African American households and Hispanic homes are disproportionately unready for the change, says Nielsen, while the elderly are the most ready.
Among the 56 local markets that Nielsen measures, Albuquerque-Santa Fe is the least ready with 7.6 percent of households completely unprepared, says the company. The markets with the most unready households tend to be in the Western United States, where cable penetration is lower, says Nielsen.
Still the money spent, so far, on the DTV transition will pay off, says Wallsten.
"The important thing to remember is that the transition is going to be bring a lot of benefits," he says. "Reclaiming the spectrum allows it to be used for something more valuable than TV broadcasting like consumer broadband. "
Meanwhile, folks that still have the rabbit ears on their TVs might pick up a book for the weekend.
*Photo: (Sasha W/Flickr) *
