View the full YHOO chart at Wikinvest 
It’s been a rough year for Yahoo.
For several months, the company fended off Microsoft’s attempts to buy it. But with Yahoo’s share price trading at under $13, many think chief executive Jerry Yang made a colossal error by not accepting Microsoft’s $33 per share bid.
Meanwhile, Yahoo’s arch-rival Google continues to dominate Web search advertising — once turf the two companies battled over — so much that Yahoo has effectively thrown up the white flag by agreeing to enter into a search ad deal with its one-time adversary.
Needless to say, expectations for Yahoo’s quarterly earnings report Tuesday afternoon are quite low. The only question is, how bad will it be, and can the company pull a rabbit out of its hat (AOL, anyone?) to give investors something — anything — to cheer about looking forward.
Here’s what to listen for on Yahoo’s earnings call:
AOL:
After months of speculation, Wall Street wants to know if Yahoo is finally ready to pull the trigger on a deal to acquire all or part of AOL, Time Warner’s troubled internet arm. I tend to agree with Kara Swisher that the deal only makes sense if Yahoo can get AOL very cheaply. And then what? If Yahoo just buys AOL’s content business, (search, the portals, and the ad business) — it’s hard to see how that gives it much more traction against Google, which dominates Web search advertising. Besides, Yahoo already has a huge and successful content operation. And if Yahoo buys AOL in its entirety?
Well, let’s just say that analysts will be very interested to hear
Yahoo plans to integrate AOL’s internet access business — which does have value — in a way that bolsters Yahoo’s bottom line.
Microsoft:
With Yahoo shares trading at nearly one-third — one-third! — of the value of Microsoft’s final offer for Yahoo, many continue to see a
Redmond buyout of the company as the best way to salvage shareholder value and mount a credible threat to Google. Last week, Microsoft chieftain Steve Ballmer hinted that the software giant would still be interested in buying the company. Microsoft’s official denial of interest is simply not credible. Of course Microsoft is still eyeing Yahoo, and if the company’s shares fall further, Microsoft may feel that Yahoo has become so cheap that it can’t afford not to make a renewed bid. Expect analysts to ask about renewed talks, and Yahoo executives to maintain their position that independence is in the best interests of shareholders.
Macro issues: Yahoo is heavily exposed in advertising verticals that are among the most susceptible to a recession, including real estate, autos, and finance. Analysts will want to know how badly the online advertising slowdown is affecting
Yahoo’s revenues. Keep in mind that the company is reporting results for the quarter that ended just before the worst paroxysms of the financial crisis. Yahoo executives will likely warn that a prolonged recession will adversely impact the company moving forward.
Display advertising:
Last week, Google showed the search advertising business tends to be more resilient than other forms of Web advertising. The problem for
Yahoo is that, compared to Google, its strength lies not in search ads, but in display ads, which are likely to take a beating as the economy deteriorates. Analysts will want to hear the company’s thoughts on the display ad market over the next year to 18 months.
Workforce: It’s virtually certain that Yahoo will announcea major round of job cuts, widely expected to be over 1,000 out of a company of 14,300. The company will couch the announcement in terms of cost-cutting, but will it be enough to assuage Wall Street? If investors think Yahoo is plunging the scalpel deep enough then the reaction could be positive.
But it’s hard to envision that Yahoo will make cuts deep enough to satisfy angry investors who have seen the value of their Yahoo shares plummet.
Management: For months, Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang has endured withering criticism over his handling of Microsoft’s bid, as well as the company’s overall direction and execution. Many believe that a wholesale management shake-up is necessary to right Yahoo. Will the company announce any changes at the very top, or will it express confidence in its top leaders, as it has throughout its recent travails. I’m betting on the latter.
Google pact:
Yahoo hopes that its controversial search ad partnership with Google will boost its revenues by $800 million annually. But the deal has encountered stiff opposition from advertiser groups and regulators. The
Department of Justice continues to scrutinize the deal. Expect to hear
Yahoo execs argue that the deal will not stifle competition and is in the best interest of Yahoo’s shareholders. Analysts will want an update on how the company’s efforts to gain regulatory approval are proceeding.
From Portfolio.com: Tech Observer by Sam Gustin Related Links
