As computers get more and more powerful, a few wide-eyed enthusiasts are looking forward to the day -- in 2045, they say -- when machine intelligence will surpass that of humans.
This event, called the "singularity," was popularized by Ray Kurzweil’s 2005 book The Singularity is Near. And last weekend, academics and technology heavyweights gathered for a day-long conference in San Jose, California to discuss its implications.
The speakers presented ideas ranging from creating artificial intelligence to the impact of genomics and how super-intelligent machines could impact society.
But rather than a dispassionate discussion about the impact of technological advances, the convention had a slightly cult-like feel.
For instance, people sitting down to lunch at the conference casually asked one another, "Are you a believer?"
And many attendees voiced the belief that the singularity would change humankind and that those who survive until the event happens will reap great rewards -- painting a Utopian vision of the world.
A quick poll among 300 or so conference attendees showed more than a handful had signed up for cryonics--where the body is frozen and waiting to be resuscitated in the future. That's a significant percentage of the 1,300 people in the world that have signed up for cryonics, according to James Miller, assistant professor of economics at Smith College, who spoke at the conference.
Most speakers at the conference were in little doubt that machines will be smarter than humans in a few decades. “Barring physical catastrophes -- a major nuclear war or if the human race became extinct -- singularity will happen,” science fiction author Vernor Vinge told attendees.
And unlike what some doomsday scenarios may have predicted, machine intelligence will help improve society, said Vinge.
The evolution of super intelligent machines could unfold in four ways, argued Nova Spivack, the founder of Radar Networks, which runs
Twine.com, an online site that helps people keep track of their interests.
Individual computers could get smarter or large computer networks could become more intelligent, said Spivak. “The computer interface could become intimate, so that we become so connected to each other and our computers that each individual becomes superhuman,” he said. “And finally the human intellect can also be enhanced by biological means to become super intelligent.”
How machines will become super intelligent is a matter of much debate. But mere belief in the singularity may be enough to produce change, said Miller.
Casting the singularity as an event pitting believers against non-believers had some attendees puzzled.
“I worry about the rhetoric because science is under attack more than ever before and the rhetoric of the singularity seems more appropriate for a religious movement than science,” saidscience journalist John Horgan, who chatted with Kurzweil on stage during the conference. “It damages the credibility of science as a whole at a time that’s not good for it.”
Still, conference goers such as Emiliano Kargieman, an associate with Aconcagua Ventures, found some of the discussion thought-provoking. “The pace at which new technologies are coming is increasing and the consequences that will have on society are very interesting areas for thought,” he said. “I compare the situation we are in right now to one where physicists were at the beginning of the
20th century.”
For attendees focused on the science there was plenty of fodder for thought. Ben Goertzel, director of research at the Singularity
Institute, introduced the Open Cognition project, or OpenCog for short.
It attempts to use open source code to create a platform to build and share artificial intelligence programs.
The project has created a open wiki for interested users to contribute. “We are looking at how to make a design for a thinking machine,” said Goertzel. OpenCog could eventually help create an "operating system for artifical general intelligence,"
he said.
OpenCog could be used to create a chat robot capable of holding an intelligent discussion with a human, virtual parrots that can be used to teach language, or software for controlling virtual animals.
“We are creating virtual dogs that can play with each other and can be taught using reinforcement and punishment,” said Goertzel.
The Singularity Summit also plans to start a university along the lines of the France –based International Space University which offers graduate level training in areas such as space science, engineering, policy and law, announced Peter Diamandis, founder and CEO of the X
Prize Foundation. The foundation offers multi-million dollar prizes for problems solved in areas such as education, space and energy.
See also:
- Brainy Robots to Lead to Longer Unemployment Lines?
- Expectation of Machine Intelligence Could Change Social Behavior, Says Economist
- Space is The Next Frontier for Esther Dyson
- Singularity Summit to Discuss Impact of Machine Intelligence
(Photo: Nova Spivack, CEO of Radar Networks at the Singularity Summit)
