Research In Motion, maker of the indispensable BlackBerry devices, may see sales stall in this brave, new, sucky economy.
That's the conclusion of Tavis McCourt, an analyst with Morgan Keegan. He expects sales growth will slip from 40 percent in 2008 to between 25 and 30 percent in 2009.
Shareholders apparently share his concerns, because the stock sank more than 8 percent in Monday's trading session.
But there's the catch: McCourt also thinks new products in the pipeline, such as the Storm, (right), and the Bold, (below), may help save the day.
"We continue to believe RIM should grow significantly faster than the smart phone market given its aggressive new product introductions," McCourt wrote in a note to investors.
While fancy new phones are great to have on the menu, they don't really change the economic environment, in which $300 purchases are given very careful consideration, and $20-per-month in added fees aren't very digestible.
"There's no doubt that the U.S. and Western Europe is going to get hit by a significant consumer recession," says Peter Misek, an analyst with Canaccord Adams. "RIM's devices are premium, and in this new world, the pressure on price is going to be extreme."
And because BlackBerries are largely targeted to business and corporate users, RIM is also vulnerable to cutbacks in corporate spending — as layoffs mount, so do BlackBerry service cancellations.
Despite all the immediate doom and gloom, though, analysts are bullish on RIM for the long-term. To get through the immediate mess, the suspicion is that the company could offer discounted prices on tiered services and grow its market share.
"In other countries there are BlackBerry plans that start as low as $15, or are pay-as-you-go. We think that will happen at some point in the U.S.," says Deepak Chopra, an analyst with Genuity Capital Markets.
Photo courtesy BlackBerry
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