As computers get smarter machines could become more intelligent than humans within a few decades, leading to an event dubbed the Singularity.
Technologists are still debating the possibility but what if just enough people believed it is likely?
Whether the singularity occurs or not, just the expectation of it could significantly change human behavior, says James Miller, associate professor of economics at Smith College.
“Long before there is a singularity, people will come to expect it,” Smith told attendees at the Singularity Summit in San Jose. “And it is very likely that could happen within 20 years.”
The belief that a vastly different future is near could change how people make choices in life, education, investment and retirement, says Miller. “People will become very fearful of death, save less and invest differently,” he says.
Most significant among their choices would be the emphasis on extending life, says Smith. “If you think there will be a machine-driven future then your top priority is to survive long enough to make it to the singularity,” he says.
That means people force Governments to increase its defense spending in a bid to ensure the greatest chance of survival.
“Believers will also want to spend more money to increase their chances of making it to the singularity with things such as safer cars and machines that make jobs such as construction safer,” he says.
Another emerging field could be cryonics which allows for freezing of the body on the belief that it can be resuscitated in the future when the right technology is available. As more people think that future could be a vastly different placed shaped by technological advances, they are more likely to spend what it takes to be a part of it, says Miller.
Interestingly, a quick poll among the 350 or so conference attendees on who’s signed up for cryonics threw up nearly a dozen hands. Compare that to the fact that only about 1300 people in the entire world have signed up for cryonics, according to Miller.
The belief that intelligent machines will dominate could also lead to lower spending on education, says Miller. “If you are thinking of being a surgeon, why would you spend the time to learn if you think computers will be vastly better than humans at operations,” he says. "People are then likely only to pay to learn where education is fun and truly rewarding."
For an economist, some of Miller’s views relating to how the expectation of singularity sound rather alarmist. As more people believe in the singularity, they are likely to save less for retirement and change the way they invest leading to higher interest rates and different mortgage patterns among other things he says.
“We save for days when we will be frail and can’t work,” Miller told attendees. “But if you think there will be singularity by 2045, you believe your body will live longer and that changes your behavior significantly.”
Miller’s talk was among the most controversial at the conference. His financial advice especially had some of the attendees riled. “The framing of this discussion into believers and non-believers is ridiculous,” says Eric Acher, an associate with the Sao Paulo, Brazil-based Monashees capital who claims he walked out of the talk towards the end. "The discussion needs to be about the impact of technological progress on society."
Other attendees such as Robert Bernstein, a nanotech engineer seemed more willing to buy into Miller’s ideas. “What I took away from the talk was how personal behavior should change as a result of the probability of the singularity and how that would affect the economics of the world,” says Bernstein.
What do you think of Miller's views? Are you a believer?
