* Portrait: Mario Hugo * In the past, malefactors seeking to enrich uranium to bomb-grade quality needed either a highly conspicuous industrial plant or specialized equipment that was hard to obtain and relatively easy to monitor. But there's a new method on the horizon, and it's potentially far easier to hide.
For the past four years, Charles Ferguson has been tracking the progress of a technology known as laser isotope separation. Still experimental, it requires only a warehouse-sized space and the kind of lasers within reach of a high school science geek. "The A. Q. Khan network is old-school," Ferguson says, referring to the Pakistani scientist who sold bomb secrets to Iran, Libya, and North Korea. "The next Khan network could use this new technique."
WMD experts often overlook laser enrichment because it's not yet productive enough for industrial use. That's a serious mistake. In 2002, dissidents exposed laser experiments in Iran; at least a dozen other countries are known to have dabbled in the technique.
Bottom line: The US needs to develop its own small-scale laser-enrichment operations, which it could study to learn more about the telltale signs of illicit setups. For example, key equipment used for the faux projects could then be flagged for additional monitoring. If authorities can learn to track these small-scale operations, they have a decent chance of bringing the clandestine potential of laser uranium enrichment in from the cold.
Uranium enrichment facilities are getting smaller—and easier to hide.
Gaseous Diffusion
This Cold War-era method of enriching uranium is expensive and difficult to conceal. It consumes large amounts of energy (which can be monitored easily) and requires industrial facilities of several acres, almost always conspicuous in satellite imagery.
Gas Centrifuge Separation
This process takes less space and energy than diffusion but poses other inconveniences to would-be proliferators. Few manufacturers are capable of producing the necessary precision-tooled centrifuges, a fact that makes equipment easier to track.
Laser Isotope Separation
Off-the-shelf technology can be used to run this emerging enrichment method. It takes relatively little space and consumes virtually untraceable amounts of energy, so a secret laser separation facility can operate in an unassuming warehouse.
Charles Ferguson is Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Related The 2008 Smart List: 15 People the Next President Should Listen To 1. Parag Khanna: Embrace the Post-American Age 2. David Laibson: Tweak Human Behavior to Fix the Economy 3. Carolyn Porco: Use Big Robots — and Big Rockets 4. Leroy Hood: Look to the Genome to Rebuild Health Care 5. Montgomery McFate: Use Anthropology in Military Planning 6. Peter Gleick: Deal With the Water Crisis Now 7. Jagdish Bhagwati: Keep Free Trade Free 8. Ellen Miller: Make Washington More Like the Web 9. Ram Shriram: Open Up the Airwaves 10. A.T. Ball: Wage Smarter War With Agile Army IT 11. Steve Rayner: Take Climate Change Seriously 12. Mitchell Joachim: Redesign Cities From Scratch 13. Mark Smolinski: Detect Epidemics Before They Start 14. Charles Ferguson: Beware of New, Easy-to-Make Nukes 15. Robert Dalrymple: Get Ready for Extreme Weather Game Controllers Driving Drones, Nukes
Nuke Smuggler Peddled Missile-Ready Bomb Designs
Photos Provide Rare Glimspe Into Iran's Nuke Program
In the Search for Loose Nukes, a Little Propaganda Goes a Long Way
