It's been a rough year for Bollywood. The Indian movie industry reportedly posted a loss for the first six months of 2008. And out of 116 films released during that period, there were only two hits and another two "average grossers," according to the Economic Times of India.
The big problem -- or so say analysts -- is that ticket prices in India are no longer affordable for most moviegoers.
"It is unimaginable that the loss ratio can be so high due to bad films," an analyst, Amod Mehra, told the Economic Times. "People are not interested in shelling out money for films."
We have to believe the ample supply of pirated Bollywood films -- both online and on the street -- isn't helping much, especially if the cost of admission is out of most people's budgets. (The web is chock full of web sites that brazenly make Bollywood films available to download for free.)
Could the U.S. box office experience a similar fate? It's hard to imagine now, when blockbusters like "Hancock" gross more than $100 million in less than a week. Still, some analysts speculate that the decline has already begun -- and it will only be a matter of time before the business models of movie studios and TV networks collapse under the weight of digital distribution.
"Right now, the [U.S.] box office is slightly ahead of 2007. But that's before inflation. When you do a numbers comparison, we may be up 1 percent over last year," says Jeffrey Hartke, senior market analyst at Hollywood Stock Exchange, a fantasy movie stock market. "But when you factor in inflation [or the increase in ticket prices], we're a little bit behind, in terms of attendees."
And who can we blame for the sluggishness? The movie studios are grappling with a slew of problems, including a weak economy; a mediocre slate of films; and the delayed deployment of digital projectors. Still, piracy probably plays a small part, says Drew Crum, an analyst with Stifel Nicolaus.
"It’s certainly a concern of ours -- especially when you have staggered releases, and there's an opportunity for piracy. That can take away from market share [from the exhibitors.]"
Crum is also optimistic that the big blockbusters slated for release in the third- and fourth-quarters -- including "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince," could bolster box office grosses. (We predict it will be five minutes before the new Harry Potter is available to download online.)
*Photo: "Jodhaa Akbar," above right, was considered one of two "average grossing" Bollywood movies released this year. *Courtesy Jodhaa Akbar
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