Getting the Game|Life crew to debate the impact of this month's NPD numbers was a tall order, given that separating Chris or Earnest from Smash Bros. was roughly akin to snatching dinner away from a starving dog.
Eventually, their professionalism and dedication to our readers won out, and they put down their Wiimotes. Either that or their batteries ran out.
In any event, they have joined me to ponder imponderables such as the shortage of 360s, Sony's rise from the ashes, and whether or not there's anyone left on Earth who doesn't own a DS. There's also talk of killer robots, unicorns, and Chuck D.
So sit back, relax, and enjoy as Chris "KO" Kohler, Earnest "Cave-In" Cavalli, and I break down the NPD numbers, Game|Life Brawl-style.
Susan,
Earnest,
This month's NPD results leave us with a lot of unanswered questions, but one thing's for sure -- Nintendo has bounced back nicely from its post-holiday inventory drought. Remember, last month's numbers brought Wii and DS down within spitting distance of their rivals. Sure, they were still in first place, but it was practically a statistical tie.
But they found their footing in February, and they're back to selling unbelievable amounts of hardware -- especially for this time of year. And Wii's dominance is only going to continue. Super Smash Bros. Brawl
in March. Mario Kart in April. Wii Fit in May. It's looking as if Nintendo's supply situation with Wii isn't going to resolve itself before 2009, at this point.
Despite Microsoft's lengthy spin, every month that goes by where they come in third is a bad thing. First, they're basically letting Nintendo run away with it. When most pundits look at the NPD numbers this month, the first thing they're going to see isn't the closer race between PS3 and Xbox -- they're going to see Wii selling practically twice as many units as either of the other two.
And of course, it takes away from their position that they're trouncing Sony in the U.S., and adds to the perception (if not quite the reality, yet) that Sony will inevitably take a worldwide lead over Microsoft.
Sony has certainly strengthened its position, regardless of Microsoft's numbers. They're doing qualitatively better. The question that remains is not whether Sony can keep this up -- they can -- but whether or not Microsoft is about to pull a move that sends Sony back to a more distant third place. I still don't buy the notion that they simply screwed up and forgot to make enough Xboxes. With Grand Theft Auto IV on the horizon and the SKUs still way, way too expensive for the true mass market, one would hope that all this shortage ridiculousness is the prelude to a new price structure or a new hardware configuration.
- Chris
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Chris,
Susan,
Yes, Nintendo is doing well. Still.
The DS will always be a license to print cash, the Wii is a license to print large denomination coinage, and I almost expect the Nintendo offices in Japan to be filled floor-to-ceiling with unicorns, sunshine and the joyful tears of small children.
If Nintendo wasn't still suffering from this mysterious console shortage -- yes, I'm very suspicious of its true cause -- they'd be making enough cash to buy every one of our readers their own speedboat.
Let's just give them the crown for this generation of consoles and move on to more controversial topics, shall we?
On the Microsoft versus Sony front, I agree with Chris' point that Sony is doing qualitatively better, but I'd like to point out that they would almost have to be. The launch, and early days of the PS3 were defined by a complete lack of useful, fun software and this perception was further heightened by the ridiculous amount of enjoyable games the Xbox 360 had during that same period. By releasing games that actually exist and are more than just tech demos of ducks floating in bathtubs, Sony has set a new highbar for PS3 titles, however low that bar may actually be, and their sales figures reflect that.
Sony's best bet for overtaking Microsoft is the Redmond giant's own strategy based on the idea that US gamers have created a subjective reality where their perception of Microsoft's dominance actually creates that dominance. Normally I'd say that's a terrible business plan on Microsoft's part, but the lead they have on Sony is just so large, and mindshare amongst easily impressed gamers is extremely important. Mindshare alone gave the Super Nintendo an eventual win over the technologically superior Genesis, after all.
Honestly, the numbers are a bit dull, and they don't really have any surprises in store for anyone, but what most impresses me is how amazing both Microsoft and Sony are at spinning their current market positions. Neither are in the lead, but if you believe the PR blasts they released based on the NPD numbers both companies may as well have wings and halos.
As Chuck D once said: "Don't believe the hype!"
- Earnest
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Chris,
Earnest,
I can keep silent no longer. I know the real reason of the "shortage" of 360s that caused Microsoft's numbers to dip in February, as well as the ongoing lack of Nintendo Wii and DS units. Representatives of a secret organization from the future traveled back in time and are cannibalizing game consoles for parts to build their army of killer robots. It's true. I saw it on the Internet.
Plots for the next season of The Sarah Connor Chronicles aside, I don't for a second buy Microsoft's story about the shortage of 360s, especially not given the recent price drop in Europe. Granted, a pricing scheme in one part of the world certainly doesn't have to mean that the rest of the world will soon be following suit, but it would make sense for Microsoft to have something up their sleeves.
The Wii is dirt cheap (and has *Smash Bros. and Mario Kart *in its immediate corner), and the PS3 has Blu-ray, so if Microsoft wants to make any further dent in the mainstream marketplace, they're going to have to do something, and the Arcade SKU, as they've discovered, just ain't it.
Quick anecdote to illustrate my point. As I was traveling back and forth (and back and forth) across the country for first DICE and then GDC, I found myself discussing the gaming industry with a number of non-industry people on planes, in hotels, waiting for taxis, and so forth. Everyone wanted to know how they could get a Wii, and/or were interested in the PS3's Blu-ray capabilities. The 360 never came up in conversation once.
A new SKU and exclusive* GTA IV* content might, and I emphasize might, be enough to shift that collective consciousness. Hopefully Microsoft hasn't been huffing fumes from Sony's leftover cans of "We're unstoppable," and is actively trying to do something to improve their position.
Sony should be feeling quite chuffed this month. They're not winning, or anything, but both the PS2 and the PS3 had excellent showings and, for the first time in what seems like forever, nobody's really pointing a finger at Sony and telling them how much they suck. Except for the whole lack of in-game XMB, that is, which Sony very cleverly acknowledged with their "In-Shirt XMB" gag during GDC. That one prank showed that they're not only listening to their audience, but also that they have a sense of humor. I can't remember the last time we could say either thing about them, and it's something that can only work in their favor.
Now, where's Home?
- Susan
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Susan,
Earnest,
I'm jumping on a plane soon, but here are my rapid-fire thoughts about this month's software Top 10.
- Interesting to see Guitar Wars heating up. Rock Band is outselling GHIII on 360. GHIII Wii is outselling the rest of them. This is going to be just as exciting a battle to watch as PS3 vs 360.
- Devil May Cry 4 did really, really well on PS3. Why? Could be because it began life as a PS3 exclusive, so that base was really energized for it? Could also be because PlayStation 3 owners had basically one new
game this month versus two with DMC4 and Lost Odyssey, which did surprisingly well.
- Mario and Sonic continues to pay off huge for Sega. Nintendo DS continues to steamroll in software, although we'll see PSP games on the charts this month for sure. (And if we don't, it'll be nothing less
than a disaster.) Hey, I heard Professor Layton did 90,000 units. Not the million I was hoping for, but that's 90,000 happy people.
-Chris
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Susan,
Chris,
Like the hardware numbers, the software side of things is exactly what you'd expect: Action games do really well on the Xbox 360 and PS3, rhythm games are taking over the world and anything with "Mario" in the title sells like hotcakes made of gold.
Two points about those numbers do please me greatly though.
First, Lost Odyssey continues Microsoft's push towards getting some quality RPGs on their system this generation and the fans apparently appreciate that. Since the PS3 isn't exactly the RPG powerhouse that its predecessor was, I'm glad at least one of the consoles is picking up the slack for all of those Nipponophile kiddies with 40+ hour blocks of time on their hands.
Second, I'm very impressed that Mario And Sonic At The Olympic Games is still selling so well. Realistically the game is just a Track And Field clone with Sega and Nintendo mascots, and most Wii owners already have an exceedingly similar game in Wii Sports, and yet Mario And Sonic continues to make bank for Sega. Combined with the game's innate nostalgia value for those of us who are quickly becoming completely jaded by the industry, and I can't help but smile when I think of the whole new generation of kids who've spent their allowance fueling the rivalry between the hedgehog and the Italian stereotype.
It's like 1992 all over again!
-Earnest
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Chris,
Earnest,
You really shouldn't jump on planes, Chris. The flight attendants really prefer that you stay in your seat.
I'm pleased that Lost Odyssey did so well. It really is an incredibly good game, if a bit on the slow side. And by "slow," I mean that glaciers zoom by at breakneck speeds compared to this game. Still, the game is worth playing if only to enjoy the incredibly good localization. The writing is simply fantastic, especially when it comes to the Thousand Years of Dreams portions of the game.
I'm going to cook up some popcorn for these Guitar Hero wars. The showdown of the platforms is juicy enough, but throw in the recent legal wranglings over the $14.5 million in royalties that Harmonix says Activision owes them from sales of GH3 and you have a drama that's almost as good as a telenovela. Maybe even better.
No surprise that Devil May Cry 4 did as well as it did, and Mario & Sonic's momentum will remain unchecked as we get closer to the actual Olympic games themselves. I am surprised at how well Turok fared, though I don't expect those numbers to last. What's most impressive for me is the continued dominance of Call of Duty 4. It came out in early November and is still going very, very strong. Infinity Ward was sick of World War II, and have proven that they don't need it to be wildly successful.
-Susan
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Susan,
Earnest,
HR will be contacting you shortly with details of your generous severance packages.
- Chris
