While analysts seem transfixed by Apple's missing iPhones lately, let's take a moment to examine something slightly more concrete: the implications of talks between Apple and China's largest mobile operator (China Mobile) ending. If you were wondering what Apple potentially gave up when those negotiations hit an impasse, here are the latest numbers about the broader Chinese market and China Mobile in particular:
- As of the end of Dec. 2007, there were 547.29 million mobile subscribers in China.
- That number is growing by 1.47 percent each month and by 18.70 percent each year, according to statistics published by China's Ministry of Information Industry on January 31.
- The number of subscribers at the end of December accounted for 41.6 percent of the China's total population.
- As of late 2007, China Mobile's total number of subscribers came in at
332.38 million. That's a little over 60 percent of the country's total mobile subscribers - Those 332.38 subscribers represent a net increase of 31.15 million (yoy) and an average monthly net addition of over five million.
- For perspective, AT&T announced it added 2.7 million new wireless subscribers during the fourth quarter. That number represents the largest quarterly increase by any U.S. carrier...ever.
- Here in the U.S., there are an estimated 250 million mobile subscribers, according to the latest numbers from the CTIA.
Now Apple is still supposedly pitching the iPhone to China Unicom, China Mobile's closest competitor. But with less than half the subscribers, there's no question about who the big cheese is in China's mobile arena. These recent stats are also a large part of why I originally thought Apple would forgo a revenue share business model in China's case (and only in China's case) and move to a strictly a volume based one. That doesn't look likely now, although the company could still loosen up its revenue share terms while negotiating with China Unicom.
It just seems hard to believe that with China's mobile growth rates and current subscriptions being what they are, Apple wouldn't be more willing to rejigger its demands. Win China, and you not only guarantee those 10 million (and much more) in iPhone sales by 2008, but you also stand to compete with the big boys in the mobile industry like Nokia. Don't tell me Apple's not that ambitious.
Photo courtesy of theiPhoneblog
