Steve Jobs had Macworld attendees salivating over the uber-thin Macbook Air on Tuesday, but once the reality distortion field went down and people actually started looking at the specs, that drool began to congeal.
Some critics are already less than impressed by the laptop's sealed case and the absence of features offered by other traditional notebooks -- like an optical drive, replaceable battery and a firewire port. That $1800 price tag isn't winning over many people, either.
Yet such things don't seem to worry those who cover Apple for a living. Every analyst we spoke to on Tuesday said they expect Apple's new emaciated notebook to do big things in the coming year.
"It definitely breaks new ground and is clearly the thinnest laptop ever released," said Creative Strategies Tim Bajarin.
"What's more, Apple's clearly responding to what is an actual trend right now: the popularity of the ultra-light laptop," he continued. Bajarin predicts that ultra-light laptops will grow to 20 percent (of the laptop market) in the next three years and that the Macbook Air will play a major role in that growth.
Analysts like to break down laptops into four categories: All-in-ones or desktop replacements, which are usually 6-to-7 pounds; Thin-and-lights, which usually weigh in at 4-6 pounds; Ultra lights, which are 2.5-to-4 pounds; and that category everyone ignores: the ultra mobile PC or UMPC.
Currently, the thin and lights account for about 50 percent of laptops sales. Ultra-lights, like Apple's new Macbook Air are currently 10-15 percent of the laptop market, according to Bajarin -- definitely the low end for now. But expect that to change.
As consumers increasingly begin to realize laptops are an intimate part of their mobile lifestyles, that number will jump in the coming years, he says.
Others were equally impressed with the Air. "I think it's gorgeous," Yankee Group's Carl Howe told Gadget Lab, and while he didn't speculate on numbers, he did say he expects the laptop to become "a fashionable niche product" for Apple. The important thing to note about Apple's new laptop is that it can't (and won't) compete with the Macbook Pro, or even the basic Macbook, he says. Those will remain the biggest sellers for Apple
"But what Apple has done with the Macbook Air is to construct a new little niche inbetween those two lines," Howe says. It might not be as popular as the rest of the Macbook family but it will definitely gain converts over the year.
