Is A Space Race So Bad, Even If We Don't Win?

As part of the ongoing commemorations marking the 50th anniversary of spaceflight this year, the New York Times offers a good package of stories interviewing NASA Administrator Michael Griffin, and presenting an overview of space projects in the U.S. and overseas.

The upshot? In each of two articles, a consistent message, particularly from Griffin: Other nations are threatening to erode the United States' lead in space and space technology.

A sample:

"This is the last generation of Americans which is going to have the unquestioned opportunity to lead that enterprise,” Mr. Griffin said. “Because in the next generation we are going to find, at least, Russia, China, India and Europe fully as capable as we are. It will be a matter of interest and politics and societal will or desire. But it will not be a matter of capability."

Is this really such a bad thing? I'm not entirely sure Griffin himself really believes this. It's certainly a net loss if you happen to be sitting inside the Pentagon, and watching the U.S. lead in spy satellites decay.

But if your goal is to get people to the Moon, Mars, and beyond, and to figure out as much as possible about the universe and our own planet as possible, having other people in the game can only help. The knowledge and experience gained by China, India, Japan, Russia, and Europe, and anyone else who launches serious space projects, can be used collaboratively.

Nor is it a bad thing economically. The U.S. economy has shown itself to be pretty good at keeping up a world-class aerospace industry. Worldwide space ambitions could be a good thing for jobs, particularly with all of the private-sector space companies now springing up here.

Nevertheless, the articles forcefully make the point that big questions still have to be answered satisfactorily on a political, societal level, if we're going to spend billions on manned spaceflight missions. The biggest? Why are we doing this?

The alternative could be collapse, before the lofty goals are reached. Says John Logsdon, director of the space policy institute at George Washington University, in the first Times piece:

“If the current proposals to restart human exploration fail politically, indeed, the human space flight endeavor conducted under government auspices might well lose its momentum. I obviously hope that doesn’t happen. But it’s far from a slam dunk that we’re going back to the Moon and on to Mars."

New Horizons Beckon, Inspiring Vision if Not Certainty [New York Times]
New Challengers Emerge, Threatening to Take the Lead [New York Times]

(Image: Artist's rendition of the planned Orion spacecraft, approaching the International Space Station. Credit: NASA)