Generics Keep Drug Inflation in Single Digits

American medicine cabinets are the site of a "quiet coup," with a "tidal wave" of generic drugs promising to sweep out expensive, brand-name drugs, begins this metaphor-happy New York Times article.

In the next five years, patents will expire on branded prescription drugs accounting for some one-fifth of the industry's annual sales of $275 billion. Their knockoffs are expected to cost between 30 and 80 percent less.

Thankfully, the article spares us from the usual worries that generics create a disincentive for companies to develop new drugs. Instead it contains this incredible tidbit:

Several experts predict that generic drugs will keep drug price inflation in the single digits for the next several years.

“It’s much better than it was in the ’90s, before these drugs started going generic,” said Dr. Steven B. Miller, chief medical officer for
Express Scripts, another company that manages drug benefit plans. “The drug trend was always double digit.”

Double digit drug inflation? Barely kept in the single digits by generics? From an industry that's spending more money to produce fewer drugs than ever before? If anything says that modern drug development is broken, this is it.
More Generics Slow Rise in Drug Prices [New York Times]

New Drug Development: Science, Business, Regulatory and Intellectual
Property issues Cited as Hampering Drug Development Efforts [Government
Accountability Office] [PDF]
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