"If you ask anyone who understands Iraq if they understand Iraq, they say, 'No.'" That's what an officer a friend of mine, a recent Iraq veteran, told me over a couple of beers back in April. He continued: "Anyone who knows anything about Iraq knows they don't know anything."
So who's better at predicting threats, conflicts and their outcomes: policymakers, pundits and other experts, or a bunch of average slobs? Some academic types conducted a study to find out. I examine the (perhaps surprising) results over at War Is Boring.
