Groom Lake Expands...and Prepares for UFOs

The Air Force’s secret testing facility at Groom Lake is expanding and Defense Technology International Editor-in-Chief Bill Sweetman (and dogged Area 51 investigator) suggests it may be that we’re finally seeing UFOs. No, not Unidentified Flying Objects, but Un-Funded Opportunities that companies like Lockheed Martin saw after 9/11, and that Sweetman says may have now […]

The Air Force's secret testing facility at Groom Lake is expanding and Defense Technology International Editor-in-Chief Bill Sweetman (and dogged Area 51 investigator) suggests it may be that we're finally seeing UFOs. No, not Unidentified Flying Objects, but Un-Funded Opportunities that companies like Lockheed Martin saw after 9/11, and that Sweetman says may have now blossomed into secret aircraft.

UfoWriting on the Ares blog, Sweetman suggests "there is only one reason for a base like this: to flight-test hardware that is secret and visibly different from other aircraft." The new hangar, he continues, might "include experimental platforms pushing the boundaries of stealth, particularly in terms of allowing aircraft to persist undetected around the clock, and experimental UAVs and UCAVs."

Though I admire Sweetman's pursuit of the Groom Lake secret, what is missing from the picture -- and what is typically missing from such Groom Lake mystery stories -- is anything beyond conjecture (albeit grounded conjecture from someone who knows the industry very well). Sweetman draws our attention to new satellite photos obtained by Dreamland Resort that show expansion at Area 51 and writes:

NGWhile the expansion at Groom Lake is interesting (and certainly worthy of follow up, or, further reporting), linking it to CSBA's excellent analysis of the black budget is slightly misleading, since the author of the report attributes the funding to different trends:

The concentration of classified funding in the Air Force’s budget is the result of two factors. First, the Air Force acquisition budget contributes funds to a number of intelligence agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), National Security Agency (NSA) and National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). Second, the Air Force is responsible for most command, control, communications and intelligence (C3I) functions and related assets such as reconnaissance satellites and satellite launch and control facilities, which tend to be heavily classified programs.

The other problem is that stories claiming such new aircraft tend to fall apart on closer examination. David Axe last year did a nice "hype vs. reality" piece on Area 51, and more recently, Noah debunked another "SR-72" story.

Does this mean I disagree with Sweetman? Yes and no. I agree that the expansion signifies increasing flight testing of something classified, and that UAVs of some type are a good guess. But I disagree that there is sufficient evidence to assert that this is a major black project funded by an enormous expansion of the classified budget.

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But the general expansion is not surprising either. Black budgets have boomed since 9/11. Projects that were what the late Skunk Works boss Ben Rich called UFOs (UnFunded Opportunities) in 2001 became serious candidates and competitions in 2002, risk-reduction activities in 2003 and funded items in 2004, and lo and behold, now there is hardware that has to be concealed.

In coincidence, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments has released an analysis of the 2008 classified budget for research, development and acquisition, by Steve Kosiak. The $18.1 billion total in FY2008 (the report explains how this total is legitimately arrived at) is far bigger than the total defense budget of most other countries; and the USAF's share of this money has now surpassed 40 per cent of the service's acquisition spending.