Bob Bilger, Richard Mogford, and Phil Garrett have spent many days constructing a timeline for Jim Gray's trip to the Farallon Islands on his C&C 40 Tenacious.
Jim Gray's wife, Donna Carnes, who has sailed with Jim for over 20 years, including 14 years on Tenacious, provided extensive information about Tenacious and Jim's sailing habits. Jim and Donna have sailed Tenacious from Ensenada to San Francisco and have extensive experience sailing other boats in the Mediterranean and Victoria, British Columbia. Jim has twice previously single handed Tenacious (she is rigged for single handing) from San Francisco to Cape Mendocino, always staying in cell phone contact with his wife. Jim has over 35 years of sailing experience. Jim is known to be extremely calm and focused under pressure. Jim and Donna are very conscientious and experienced at maintaining Tenacious. They have relied upon San Francisco Boat Works to perform major work on the boat whenever it is required. San Francisco Boat Works provided input to this report.
Here is the timeline.
- All times are in Pacific Standard Time.
- All headings are true.
- All distances are in nautical miles.
- All speeds are in knots.
- Wind speeds and directions for the marina are taken from Station FTPC1 — 9414290 — San Francisco, CA — 37.81 N 122.47 W (37°48'24" N 122°27'54" W)
- Wind speeds and directions for the Gulf of the Farallones are taken from Station 46026 — San Francisco Buoy — 18NM West of San Francisco, CA (37.75 N 122.82 W (37°45'32" N 122°50'00" W).
- Sunrise and sunset times are taken from the Naval Observatory.
- Tidal current data is taken from NOAA.
- Tidal flood current velocities are positive and ebb current velocities are negative.
- The course was plotted on chart 18645 in conjunction with charts 18649 and 18640.
1. January 28th at 7:00
Wind 7 knots from 10 degrees. The wind speed and direction are measured near at station FTPC1 — 9414290 — San Francisco, CA — 37.81 N 122.47 W (37°48'24" N 122°27'54" W).
Throughout the morning, afternoon, and evening of the 28th, the wind blew out of the east or northeast, and occasionally from the north. These wind conditions are very unusual. Typically the wind in San Francisco blows from the northwest and it strengthens throughout the afternoon. The normal westerly winds would not return until fairly late on the 29th. This means that Jim had a favorable easterly wind behind him while he sailed to the Farallons, but he faced the same, now unfavorable, easterly winds while sailing back to San Francisco. Jim may have expected the normally westerly wind to fill in during the afternoon for his return to San Francisco. Instead, the easterly winds hampered his return. These conditions would have significantly impacted Jim's schedule and sailing methods for the return trip. He would be forced to either tack back and forth under sail during the return trip, or resort to using the engine.
2. 7:15
Jim departed San Francisco Marina Yacht Harbor sometime after 7:01 on Sunday January 28th. We know this because Jim phoned his wife at 7:01 and said he was going to the Farallon Islands and would be departing almost immediately. During Jim's 7:01 phone call, he said he was phoning from the boat after having spent the night on Tenacious. Even if Jim had called from his home, it is only a 5 minute drive from the house to the marina. It seems extremely likely that Jim departed before 8:00 because it would be difficult for him to reach his 10:30 position if he departed later than that. Taking Jim at his word, we assume a 7:15 departure to allow a little time for him to get on the boat, warm up the engine, untie the boat, and get underway.
It is 1.9 nautical miles from the San Francisco Marina Yacht Harbor to the Golden Gate Bridge. When Jim departed, he was sailing against the last hour of a waning 2.7 knot flood current. The flood current was 1.3 knots at the Golden Gate Bridge reference station. By staying close to the San Francisco shore Jim could probably avoid most of the current, at least until he reached the bridge.
3. 7:17
Sunrise in San Francisco.
4. 7:00 to 8:00
The wind inside San Francisco Bay was blowing at 7 to 8 knots from 0 to 20 degrees. The wind measurement was taken at station FTPC1.
__5. __The Main Ship Channel extends from the Golden Gate Bridge for 7.9 miles on a course of approximately 245 degrees (just south of west). Yachts normally stay out of the ship channel. The ship channel is intended for ships that draw a lot of water and have limited maneuverability. You risk getting run down if you spend time there in a yacht. Jim usually skirted the edge of the main ship channel (just inside or outside the buoys) when entering or leaving San Francisco Bay. He avoided crossing over the shoal areas north and south of the ship channel. We assume Jim took these precautions on Sunday and that he minimized the time he spent in the ship channel. We do not know if he stayed south or north of the ship channel. Since he started at the San Francisco Marina Yacht Harbor on the south side of the channel, he may have stayed south of the channel. In this case, he might stay just south of the channel for its entire length.
Alternatively, he may have crossed the ship channel early, and then stayed north of it. This would let him sail a slightly more direct course to Southeast Farallon Island. This seems more likely.
__6. 7:30 to 8:00 __
The wind outside the Golden Gate was blowing at 7 to 8 knots from 86 to 89 degrees. This and all subsequent wind speeds and directions are measured at station 46026 — "SF" buoy which is 11 miles west of the Golden Gate and about 16 miles east of Southeast Farallon Island.
__7. 8:12 __
Slack current at the Golden Gate.
__8. 8:00 to 9:20 __
The wind was blowing at 4 to 5 knots from 77 to 104 degrees. The wind was rather light and blowing from the east. We strongly suspect that Tenacious was under power from the time it left the slip until at least 9:30, when the wind strengthened. We believe this because it seems unlikely the boat could have maintained an average speed of 5.2 knots over the bottom under sail alone. It is likely that the sails were up while the boat was under power.
__9. 9:30 to 10:30 __
The wind speed climbed gradually from 7.2 to 10.9 knots and blew from between 94 to 108 degrees.
__10. __Three approaches lead into San Francisco Bay. The Main Approach is for vessels coming from the southwest. The North Approach is for vessels coming from the northwest. The South Approach is for vessels coming from the south. Each of the three approaches has a yellow separation buoy on its inboard end that separates the "inbound" and "outbound" approach lanes. The separation buoy for the Main Approach is the yellow "W" buoy. The separation buoy for the North Approach is the yellow "N" buoy. The separation buoy for the South Approach is the yellow "S" buoy. The three approaches converge on the "SF" buoy. The San Francisco "SF" buoy is located 11 miles outside the Golden Gate Bridge on a course of approximately 245 degrees. It is located at 37.75 N 122.82 W (37°45'32" N 122°50'00" W). When a ship wishes to enter San Francisco Bay it follows one of the three Approach Channels to the "SF" buoy. When a ship reaches the "SF" buoy it picks up a pilot and follows the Main Ship Channel into the harbor entrance. Southeast Farallon Island is about two miles north of the outboard end of the Main Approach.
__11. 10:30 __
Jim phoned his wife via cell phone at 10:30. During the conversation he said he was 15 miles out at the last channel marker and had about 10 miles to go to the Farallon Islands. He said he was taking the ebb out and would take the flood back in. He said he was wearing his safety tether and would keep it on during the trip. He said he was calling now before he went out of cell phone range. He said he would phone again as soon as he got back in cell phone range.
Tenacious has a Westerbeke 40 HP 4-cylinder diesel engine. The engine could not be heard during the call. We know that Jim prefers to sail when possible, rather than using the engine. It seems likely he was under sail with the engine off.
Jim's position report is a little confusing on two counts.
First, there is a question about whether "15 miles out" is measured from the Golden Gate Bridge or from the marina. I assume it is measured from the Golden Gate Bridge because that is more consistent with Jim's position report. Southeast Farallon Island is 26.5 miles from the Golden Gate Bridge. That roughly corresponds with Jim's report that he was 15 miles out and had about 10 miles to go to the Farallon Islands.
Second, there is a question about which buoy Jim is calling the "last channel marker." The last "Main Ship Channel" markers are the Green "1" buoy and the Red "2" buoy that are 7.9 miles from the Golden Gate Bridge and 18 miles from Southeast Farallon Island. The San Francisco buoy is 11 miles outside the Golden Gate Bridge and a little over 15 miles from Southeast Farallon Island. Neither of these fit Jim's position report.
It seems likely that Jim was referring to either the yellow "N" buoy that separates the inbound and outbound lanes of the North Approach or the Yellow "W" buoy that separates the inbound and outbound lanes of the Main Approach. There is also a yellow "S" buoy that separates the inbound and outbound lanes of the South Approach, but that is 7 miles south of the most direct course to the island. It seems unlikely Jim was referring to it.
If Jim sailed just north of the ship channel and then took the most direct course toward Southeast Farallon Island once he cleared the shoals, the "N" buoy would have been 3 miles off his starboard beam when he was 15 miles out. The "W" buoy would have been 3.5 miles off his port bow at a relative bearing of about 60 degrees. We believe that he could have seen both buoys visually. He could have seen both buoys on radar, if he was using it. Southeast Farallon Island would be just over 11 miles ahead.
If Jim sailed just south of the ship channel for its entire length and then headed directly toward the island when he reached the end of the ship channel, his 10:30 position would be less than a mile south of his 10:30 position were he on the more northerly course. The "N" buoy would have been 4 miles off his starboard beam. The "W" buoy would have been 2.5 miles off his port bow at a relative bearing of 50 degrees. It seems likely he could have seen the "W" buoy visually. We are not sure if he could have seen the "N" buoy visually. He could have seen both buoys on radar, if he was using it. Southeast Farallon Island would be just over 11 miles ahead.
We are uncertain about Jim's reference to the "last channel marker." We do not know whether he is referring to the "N" or "W" buoy. It seems more likely that he is referring to the "N" buoy because it would have been directly abeam when the boat was 15 miles outside the Golden Gate. We know that Jim relied extensively on his GPS to know his location. Based upon this, we have more confidence in the 15 mile figure than on his saying he was at the "last channel marker".
If we assume that Jim departed at 7:15 and that he was 15 miles outside the Golden Gate at 10:30, then he had traveled 17 miles in 3.25 hours. His average speed over the bottom was 5.2 knots.
__12. 10:38 __
Jim left a voice message with his daughter, Heather, saying he was 16 miles out. No engine noise was heard. Jim said it was a nice day. It was cloudy, but pleasant, and he was surrounded by dolphins.
We do not put much stock in the 16 mile figure. It seems likely he was making the two phone calls back to back and just added a mile to his 10:30 position since there was no reason to be precise.
__13. 10:30 to 11:30 __
The wind was blowing at 10 to 11 knots from 81 to 90.
The ebb current was building to an eventual peak of -2.3 knots at the Golden Gate. The current is strongest at the Golden Gate Bridge because the channel is narrow there. The tidal current speed drops as it leaves the confines of the entrance. 3 miles outside the Golden Gate, the current speed is about 2/3 of the current speed at the Golden Gate. 7 miles outside the Golden Gate, the current speed is about 1/3 of the current speed at the Golden Gate. Jim may have been getting an extra 3/4 knot of speed from the current.
__14. 11:30 to 12:30 __
The wind was blowing at 9 to 10 knots from 83 to 89 degrees.
__15. 11:45 __
The Golden Gate was at its max ebb current of -2.3 knots. The current at Jim's estimated position would be 1/3 to 1/4 of that. Jim may have been getting an extra 3/4 knot of speed from the current.
16. 11:50
Jim's smart cell phone, which had been communicating through the Cingular Wireless cell tower in Daly City and syncing with the Microsoft e-mail server throughout the entire trip, synced for the last time. Synchronization retries and retry intervals appeared to increase during the course of the voyage. The increase in retry attempts may have been the result of a gradual loss of signal strength.
If we assume that Jim maintained an average speed over the bottom of 5.2 knots, Jim lost smart cell phone coverage about 4 or 5 miles short of Southeast Farallon Island. Based upon the information obtained from Cingular, Jim's phone never regained connectivity.
17. 12:30
We estimate the boat would have reached the western side of Southeast Farallon Island at about 12:30. This assumes an average speed over the bottom of 5.2 knots and a 10:30 position 15 miles from the Golden Gate and 11 miles from the island. We do not know whether Jim was aiming for the north or south side of Southeast Farallon Island.
__18. 12:30 to 13:30 __
The wind dropped from 9.1 to 5.4 knots and backed from 86 to 74 degrees.
19. 13:00 to 14:00
Sometime between 13:00 and 14:00, Brett Hartl, a biologist living and working on the island, reported seeing a boat like Jim's off of Southeast Farallon Island. Brett has been very helpful. Most important he is careful to say only what he remembers. Here is Brett Hartl's original email report:
"My name is Brett Hartl and I am the intern that probably saw Jim Gray's boat on Sunday. I called in to the Coast Guard about what little information I had, but I am happy to pass it on to you. At the time, I did not think much of seeing a boat near the islands, since there are often sailboats out around the island on weekends. I didn't even realize until late Monday night that there was a search underway. But here are the details I can recall.
I was walking around the west side of Southeast Farallon Island on Sunday on my way to Fisherman's Bay. I looked out and saw a boat fairly far out from the island between here and middle Farallon Island (1-2 miles offshore). I am guessing I saw the boat some point in the early afternoon, but I did not note the time. I do not think the boat was heading south or on a course that would have brought it back around the south side of the island. If I had to guess, I would say it was going either north or west from Southeast Farallon Island. I never looked with binoculars at the boat, so I could not tell if anyone was onboard. That is all I can really say for sure about the boat. I still have not seen a photograph of what the boat actually looks like (from my vantage it looked reddish), so I still am not 100% sure I even saw the correct boat. We saw the coast guard helicopters and cutters out searching yesterday. I hope they have found some clues to your friend's whereabouts and that he is located soon. If you have any questions, I will try my best to answer them for you."
We sent the two pictures of Jim's boat from the Coast Guard web site to Brett. The picture taken at Catalina Island shows Tenacious best. We also reminded Brett that sunset occurred at 5:30 and asked if that helped him fix the time any more precisely. Brett replied:
"I looked at the pictures, and just wanted to know if you recalled the color/pattern of the sail. Otherwise, the hull looks similar to what I saw. I just wanted to check on that item. I am guessing I saw the boat in the early afternoon probably between noon and 3, not around sunset or after sunset. I hope all this helps."
We sent mail to Brett saying the sail was white and the mast was black. We told Brett that Middle Farallon Island was 2 miles from Southeast Farallon Island. Our goal was to narrow down the distance to the boat. We also asked Brett if he recalled where he was or what he was doing when he sighted the boat. We hoped this might help him determine the time more precisely. Brett replied:
"Thanks for the information about the sail color. I am pretty confident that the boat I saw had a white sail. The hull seemed dark (color is hard to tell from a distance). So, it is definitely possible that it was the boat.
When I was walking around on Sunday, I was just taking a stroll around the island looking at birds and seals, and reacquainting myself with the island (I had not been on the Farallones for a year, and arrived the previous day). So, I was not doing anything purposeful or a time sensitive research project that helps me remember when I was out. But it was after lunch and definitely within two to three hours (12-3).
When I saw the boat, it was not close to the island. It was in open water at least a mile out. If you say that it is exactly two miles to middle Farallon, then that would put the boat between one and two miles from SE Farallon Island.
I hope all this helps. If you have any further questions or send an email and I do not respond that day, it will be because the email is out. I am trying to answer your questions immediately, but we are having trouble with our systems."
We sent another mail message to Brett and asked about the weather conditions at the island on Sunday. We asked him to confirm that the boat's sail was up, and we asked how far the boat was heeled over. Brett replied:
"The sail was up on the boat.
We record the weather three times a day on the Farallones. All day Sunday the winds were coming from the southeast and east at around 10 knots and the swell was coming from the Northwest with a height of 5 to 6 feet. Generally, the ocean conditions on Sunday were pretty good. I had sailed out to the Farallones the day before, when conditions were similar to Sunday on a 35' boat and it was pretty mellow sailing all the way to the island. On Saturday, it only took about 4.5 hours to get out to the island (we were motoring with our main sail up). Generally, my experiences sailing out to the Farallones, the trip takes 4 to 7 hours depending on conditions and how much motoring occurs.
The boat was not dramatically heeled over to one side or the other, and was probably sailing fine.
I hope this helps."
On Sunday, February 11, Bob Bilger and Donna Carnes visited Southeast Farallon Island and talked with Brett Hartl in person. Together they retraced the path Brett took on Sunday the 28th. This proved very valuable because it allowed Brett to pinpoint the time and location of the sighting more accurately. We learned the following.
Brett saw a sailboat to the northwest of Southeast Farallon Island between approximately 13:00 and 14:00 on Sunday January 28th. The boats main sail was up and its jib was furled. The boat was red or brown in color. It was definitely not white, blue, green, or gray. Brett has normal color vision.
Bret saw the starboard side of the boat. The boat was moving from Brett's left to right as he looked northwest from the island. The bow of the boat was pointed roughly north. He is not certain if the boat's course would take it to the east or west of Middle Farallon Island. He said most sailboats round Southeast Farallon Island from the south, they then pass west and north of Middle Farallon Island, and then turn toward the Golden Gate.
We learned from Brett that the charter boat "Butchie B" was in the vicinity of the Farallon Islands on Sunday the 28th doing a whale watching excursion. We contacted the captain, the deckhand, and the naturalist, Melinda Nakagawa, on the "Butchie B." Melinda observed three sailboats during the trip: two white ones and a red one. She does not recall where or when she saw these boats.
__20. 13:30 to 14:30 __
The wind speed dropped steadily from 5.4 to 1.17 knots and backed from 75 to 50 degrees.
The direct course from Southeast Farallon Island to the Golden Gate is 75 degrees.
Throughout the afternoon and evening whenever the wind strengthened, it clocked and blew out of the east. When the wind lightened, it backed and blew out of the north or north east. It seems virtually certain that Jim would need to power to keep the boat moving, given his destination of the Golden Gate.
__21. 14:30 to 15:30 __
The wind speed climbed slowly from 1.17 to 3.5 knots and clocked from 50 to 60 degrees. It seems virtually certain that Jim would need to power to keep the boat moving.
__22. 15:30 to 16:30 __
The wind speed climbed steadily from 3.5 to 8.16 and clocked from 60 to 70 degrees. For the relatively short period when the wind was strong it was blowing from the direction Jim was trying to go. If Jim attempted to sail toward home in these conditions, he would be tacking into the wind and he would make only modest progress toward his destination.
__23. 16:30 to 17:30 __
The wind speed dropped steadily from 8.16 to 3.3 knots and backed from 70 to 0 degrees.
__24. 17:29 __
Sunset in San Francisco.
__25. 17:30 to 18:30 __
The wind speed varied between 3.3 and 2.1 knots and clocked from 0 to 30 degrees. Jim would need to power to keep the boat moving.
__26. 17:57 __
End twilight in San Francisco.
__27. 18:30 to 19:30 __
The wind speed climbed steadily from 3.3 to 11.66 knots and clocked from 30 degrees to 73 degrees. If Jim attempted to sail toward the Golden Gate in these conditions, he would be forced to tack into the wind and would only make measurable progress towards home after about 19:00.
__28. 19:00 __
Max flood at Golden Gate +2.8 knots.
__29. 19:30 to 20:30 __
The wind speed varied between 11.66 and 8.6 knots and blew from between 73 and 86 degrees.
__30. 20:35 __
Jim's wife called the Harbor Master's office at the San Francisco Marina Yacht Harbor and reported Jim and Tenacious overdue. The Harbor Master's office immediately contacted the Coast Guard. The Coast Guard quickly contacted Jim's wife, and stayed in contact with her at 30 minute intervals throughout the first night's searches.
__31. 20:30 to 21:30 __
The wind speed varied between 8.6 and 11.47 knots and blew from between 78 and 86 degrees.
__32. 20:53 __
Waxing gibbous moon with 80% of the Moon's visible disk illuminated transits San Francisco.
__33. 21:20 __
US Coast Guard San Francisco broadcasts missing vessel report.
"SAN FRANCISCO — Pan Pan, Pan Pan, Pan Pan... Hello all stations this is United States Coast Guard Sector San Francisco, United States Coast Guard Sector San Francisco... Break... Time 2120 local Sunday 28th of January 2007 the Coast Guard has received a report of an overdue sailing vessel. The sailing vessel is 40 feet in length, red in color with a black mast. The sailing vessel's name is Tenacious. The Tenacious was en route to the Farallon Islands, all vessels in the vicinity are requested to keep a sharp lookout and report any sightings to the Coast Guard and assist if possible... Break... This is United States Coast Guard Sector San Francisco out."
34. January 28th to February 2nd
The US Coast Guard mounted a massive search effort following the call that reported Jim and Tenacious as overdue. By 21:20 the Coast Guard broadcast the first missing vessel report. Within two hours the physical search began. The Coast Guard search continued for 5 days; that search is summarized below. The Coast Guard web site describes the search in more detail. Jim's family and friends communicated closely with the Coast Guard throughout the search.
Each day the Coast Guard expanded the range of the search. The Coast Guard eventually searched 132,000 square miles in optimal search conditions. They searched over 300 miles offshore, past the California — Oregon border, and south to the Channel Islands. They searched out to 300 miles west of the California Coast and as far south as the Channel Islands. They also searched portions of San Francisco Bay.
The conditions for the search could not have been better — clear & calm. The pilots reported seeing things in the water that you just don't normally see at this time of year. The Coast Guard's search planes & boats have radar (which is not affected by fog) and also have Forward Looking Infrared Radar, which allows them to see sources of heat. They are confident that if the boat, or Jim in a lifeboat, or debris had been in the search area, they would have seen it. Their models do not show that he could have drifted further.
The Coast Guard did an incredible job, and we want to thank everyone involved in the search effort.
35. February 2 at 17:30
The Coast Guard search was suspended on Thursday, February 2, at 17:30 without finding Jim or Tenacious.
__36. __During the Coast Guard search and in the days that followed it, Jim's friends and family assembled satellite imagery, collected wind and current data and arranged for more air and surface searches over the ocean and coast from Oregon and into Mexico. They walked stretches of coastline and postered marinas with details on the missing boat.
__37. February 12 at 9:45 __
On Monday February 12, 2007, a group of us met with the Coast Guard at the U.S. Coast Guard Eleventh District facilities on Treasure Island to review the search effort and to discuss next steps.
The following people attended the meeting in person:
- Captain David Swatland, Deputy Commander of Coast Guard Sector San Francisco
- Lieutenant Commander Jonathan Copley, Sector Command Center Chief
- Tom Barclay
- Bob Bilger
- Donna Carnes
- Phil Garrett
- Paula Hawthorn
- Stuart Ozer
- Dick Williams
The following people attended the meeting by phone:
- Joe Hellerstein
- Scott McArthur
- Richard Mogford
- Mike Olson
- David Tennenhouse
Captain Swatland and Lieutenant Commander Copley were extremely generous with their time. They spent over two hours with us. Lieutenant Commander Copley gave us a tour of the facility and introduced us to some of the people involved in the search. Both officers explained how the search was organized, gave us a detailed presentation on the Coast Guard search, and answered all of our questions as thoroughly as possible. We sincerely appreciate the time these busy professionals spent with us. These officers are extremely competent and absolutely professional. They are a credit to the Coast Guard.
The most impressive part of the visit was Lieutenant Commander Copley's presentation showing the detailed Coast Guard search patterns. The amount of effort, equipment, and staff the Coast Guard committed to the search was overwhelming. Many of us left the meeting convinced that if Tenacious was on the surface within the search zone, it is extremely likely that the Coast Guard would have found it.
For ten days before the meeting, Bob Bilger and Phil Garrett had been collecting information regarding Tenacious, and the wind and sea conditions during and after Jim's trip to the island. We created and ranked a list of scenarios by likelihood. We plotted potential courses that Tenacious might take under sail and power. We considered scenarios that left Jim incapacitated and the boat sailing or powering on its own. We discussed these scenarios with the Coast Guard during the meeting. The list of scenarios is included below.
Bob and Phil concluded that it was extremely unlikely that Tenacious had sailed or powered outside the Coast Guard search area. The search patterns extended over 200 nautical miles to the north, over 350 nautical miles to the west, and over 300 nautical miles to the south.
The specification sheet for Tenacious says the boat is equipped with a 20 gallon fuel tank. Since C&C 40s were often purchased as race boats, 20 gallon tanks are common. Phil confirmed this by talking with San Francisco Boat Works, who has maintained the boat since Jim and Donna acquired it. Craig Page, from San Francisco Boat Works, said that Tenacious has a fuel tank of 25 gallons or less. They know this because they removed and repainted the tank a few years ago. They told us that Tenacious is equipped with a Westerbeke 40 4-cylinder diesel engine with a 1" shaft. Phil consulted the Westerbeke dealer and the Westerbeke web site and learned that the engine burns at least 1/2 gallon of fuel per hour at 1700 RPMs. It burns at least 3/4 gallon per hour at 2000 RPM. It burns at least 1 gallon per hour at 2250 RPMs. These figures are theoretical. The actual mileage is likely to be less. The theoretical figures limit how far the boat can go without refueling to less than 200 miles. Based upon Bob's discussion with a long term C&C 40 dealer, who owned and race a C&C 40 very similar to Tenacious, he believes the actual range under power to be approximately 100 miles.
Bob and Phil considered how far west, northwest, southwest, or south the boat could sail if Jim were incapacitated while on the way to Southeast Farallon Island. All other headings take the boat toward land and all of this shoreline was thoroughly searched. We assumed the boat was trimmed to run or broad reach because the wind was blowing from the east or northeast throughout the morning and early afternoon. We assumed that the boat was under autopilot control and was steering a compass course. We are relatively certain that the autopilot was not equipped to steer relative to the wind. The boat does not have a self steering wind vane. We checked the wind conditions at both the SF buoy and at the buoy 357 nautical miles west of San Francisco. We learned that the westerly wind resumed at 22:00 PST on January 29th and blew from the northwest, west, or southwest thereafter. This limits how far the boat could have sailed unattended assuming the sails were trimmed as expected, and it keeps the boat well within the Coast Guard search patterns.
The areas within 100 miles of the Golden Gate were search repeatedly and thoroughly. The immediate coast line was search every day, using a combination of helicopters and boats. The entire coast line from the Oregon border south to Santa Barbara was searched. The offshore areas were searched using two C-130 aircraft equipped with infrared sensors and other sophisticated search equipment. The closer inshore areas were searched by helicopters and Coast Guards vessels. The searchers reported that the search conditions were extremely good. They could see items that they very rarely see from the air, such as a Tyvek suit floating on the water.
These are the scenarios that Bob and Phil considered in approximate order of likelihood given the prevailing conditions. We discussed the more likely scenarios with the Coast Guard.
__1. A log, timber, or other debris struck the boat's rudder or propeller strut, holed the hull in the vicinity of the rudder post through hull fitting or the propeller strut fasteners, and the boat sank. __
We believe this is the most likely scenario for several reasons. Following very heavy rains during the previous two or three weeks, many logs and other debris are floating in the water around the Farralones. Bob and Donna saw large amounts of debris during their trip to Southeast Farallon Island on February 11th. The C&C 40 is relatively vulnerable to rudder and propeller strut damage. The boat uses a V-drive. Access to the area around the rudder shaft and strut is very poor. If a hole opened in this area, it would be very difficult to get access to the area to stop the leak. If a 6" or larger hole occurred in this area, the boat would take on about 1000 gallons of water per minute. As the boat took on water, the engine, tanks, and keel would cause the boat to sink stern first. Any floating objects inside the cabin would float upward and be captured in the bow of the boat leaving little if any floating debris. We cataloged the buoyant items on deck and in the cockpit. The man overboard horseshoe buoy was wedged in the holder and clipped to it. The man overboard pole was secured to the backstay with Velcro and is likely to remain in place. The cockpit cushions were very likely stowed below. When Jim is sailing the boat, he sits on the arched Captain's seat or on the small lazaret seats above the propane tank lockers; these seating areas have no cushions. The EPIRB was stowed below near the companion way ladder rather than in the cockpit. It is entirely possible, even likely, that Tenacious could sink and leave behind little, if any, floating debris.
2. The boat was run down by another vessel and sank.
Typically a lot of debris results when a small boat is run down by a ship. Given the thoroughness of the Coast Guard search, it seems likely that any such debris would have been discovered. However, Tenacious could have been struck in such a way that it damaged the rudder or keel. The boat might then sink as described in the first scenario leaving little or no debris. The Coast Guard is in the process of inspecting all of the vessels that departed San Francisco on January 28th. There is no certainty that evidence would remain even if one of these vessels struck Tenacious, but we appreciate the Coast Guard's thoroughness.
3. The boat struck a semi-submerged cargo container. The container either holed the hull or separated the keel from the hull and the boat sank.
The keel is an external lead keel weighing 7910 lbs. It is bolted to the hull. We discussed this with the Coast Guard. All agreed that running directly into the side or corner of a container could cause enough damage to sink the boat. They said that this is not very likely in their experience, but it cannot be ruled out.
__4. A whale struck and holed the boat, and the boat sank. __
Whales are known to be in the area. One of the boats in the vicinity of the Farallon Islands on the day of Jim's trip was whale watching. The rudder is probably the most vulnerable part of the boat. If a whale struck the rudder, it might hole the boat and sink it. It is hard for us to estimate the likelihood of this.
5. The boat sailed away on its own after Jim was incapacitated due to injury or illness.
We think that this is relatively unlikely because the Coast Guard search patterns would likely have detected the boat. See the discussion above regarding the boats range under sail and power for details.
6. The boat sailed away on its own after Jim fell or was knocked overboard.
We think that this is relatively unlikely because the Coast Guard search patterns would likely have detected the boat. It is possible that the unmanned boat was then run over in such a way that it sank without debris (see scenario 2 above). The later seems somewhat unlikely because it requires two loosely connected catastrophes in succession.
7. The boat struck a rock, holed, and sank.
We checked the charts for Southeast Farallon Island and Middle Farallon Island. The rocks around Southeast Farallon Island are within 100 to 200 yards of the island. It is unlikely Jim would approach the island this closely. He has visited the islands before. If the boat that Brett observed was Jim's boat, he was well off the island.
Middle Farallon Island is actually a single large, prominent rock. The water is deep very close to the rock. It appears you would need to run into the island to collide with it. Visibility was at least two miles. Based on Jim's 10:30 position report, he should have reached the islands in the early afternoon and sunset did not occur until 17:30.
The next nearest Farallon Island is about 4 nautical miles to the northwest. It seems unlikely that Jim would have gone there because it would have delayed his return to San Francisco by an hour or more.
8. The boat ran aground, holed, and sank.
When a boat goes aground it often remains grounded and it normally creates debris. The coast and islands were searched thoroughly and no debris was found. The fact that Jim's cell phone never synchronized after 11:50 may indicate that Jim never got back within radio contact with a cell tower. This makes grounding on the coast even less likely.
9. The boat was demasted, the demasting holed the boat, and the boat sank.
This is more likely to happen when strong winds or seas are present. Neither of these seemed to be present during Jim's trip. The weather was unusually mild. A demasting is more likely to incapacitate the boat than to sink it.
10. A through hull valve, hose clamp, or hose failed. The boat filled with water and sank.
These failures, if caught in reasonable time, are usually fairly easy to deal with. A 1" fitting that is 2 feet below the waterline only admits 28 gallons of water per minute. The boat was equipped with wooden plugs for each of the through hull fittings. Jim would almost certainly have time to deploy the inflatable dingy and the EPIRB even if he could not plug the hole.
11. A bilge pump or cockpit drain back siphoned. The boat filled with water and sank.
This is a common cause of sinking when a boat is left in the slip unattended. It more commonly affects power boats and small sail boats. When this failure is caught in reasonable time, it is usually easy to deal with. When the boat's batteries are fully charged the bilge pump can easily handle the water. Jim would almost certainly have time to deploy the inflatable dingy and the EPIRB. This scenario seems very unlikely.
12. The boat caught fire and sank.
The smoke and flames from a boat fire are often visible even from a distance. A boat fire would normally leave debris behind.
13. The boat exploded due to a propane leak and sank.
An explosion is very likely to leave debris behind.
14. The boat was pooped by a wave. The boat filled with water and sank.
The weather conditions make this unlikely. The wake from a passing ship might do this but it does not seem likely. It is more likely that the wake might pitch the skipper overboard, leaving the boat sailing or powering on its own.
15. The boat was capsized by a wave. The boat filled with water and sank.
The weather conditions make this unlikely.
16. Jim and the boat were the victims of foul play.
For example, Jim may have witnessed some illegal activities at sea. This is possible; however, probably not likely.
17. The boat was overcome by pirates.
This is more of a risk in the Caribbean than in the San Francisco Bay area. The C&C 40 does not seem a likely target for piracy. The boat's name is displayed prominently to port and starboard and on the transom. The Coast Guard search and the wide publicity would make it hard to evade detection.
Safety Equipment Aboard Tenacious
Offshore life rafts are designed to be deployed quickly and inflated automatically. They are normally stowed in a large canister on deck. If the boat sinks, a hydrostatic sensor automatically releases the life raft from the canister and causes the raft to inflate. The raft then rises to the surface. Unfortunately, Tenacious is not equipped with an offshore life raft. Offshore life rafts are quite expensive and require regular maintenance. Only boats that make long offshore voyages are normally equipped with offshore life rafts. Instead, Tenacious has a manually inflatable dingy that is filled via a foot pump. Inflating the dingy fully can take ten minutes or more. Fortunately, the dingy will float even if it is partially inflated. It might be possible to partially inflate the dingy, deploy it, and finish inflating it afterwards. However, this might be difficult in cold water.
Tenacious had two VHF radios. One 25 watt fixed mount and one 5 watt waterproof handheld. The Coast Guard can communicate with boats near the Farallon Islands via VHF radio using the repeater on Mount Tamalpias. The biologists on Southeast Farallon Island also monitor the VHF radio during parts of the day. No distress call was heard from Jim. We can only speculate about the reason. Jim may have been physically incapacitated at the time of the emergency. He may not have had the time or opportunity to get to either of the radio. The emergency may have caused the radios to malfunction.
Normally Jim does not wear a tether when sailing alone in the Bay unless conditions are bad. He normally wears a tether whenever he sails alone outside the Bay. During the 10:30 AM phone conversation, Donna asked Jim if he was tethered in. He said he was, and he promised to stay tethered for the rest of the trip. He might have temporarily un-tethered himself, if he needed to go below to use the head, or for other reasons.
Tenacious is equipped with an EPIRB that transmits an emergency homing signal on 121.5 MHz. The boat was not equipped with one of the newer EPIRBs that transmit both an emergency homing signal on 121.5 MHz and a digital identification code on 406 MHz that can be used to identify the vessel. The EPIRB was stowed in the cabin near the companionway ladder. No EPIRB signal was detected by the Coast Guard.
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Anatomy of an Accident 
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