I spoke with Darryl Siry of Tesla Motors yesterday for a Wired News article about how to reboot the American auto industry. A week ago, Siry (who is Tesla's VP Marketing) posted a provovative call-to-action on the Tesla blog, inviting the press to "toughen up on the subject of EVs." Here's an excerpt from our exchange:
What will the transition from internal combustion to electric vehicles look like?
"It's more accurate to say that we're in transition from 100 percent internal combustion to a mix of alternatives. Semi-trailers that ship goods across the country are not going to be EVs anytime soon, due to weight and range requirements. On the other hand, cars used exclusively for commuting in and around a city can be 100 percent EVs in the very near future. Taxi cab fleets and other municipal fleets are good candidates for alternative technologies, particularly electric.
"...Those commercial vehicles that still require internal combustion will use alternative fuels that alleviate the problems we're facing now, such as dependence on foreign oil. If ethanol is reserved only for large commercial users (displacing petrol), we may be able to avoid the ethanol production issues that would arise if all cars ran ethanol. In this scenario, we'd still have to figure out how to produce ethanol economically and/or accept the higher transport costs that would pump up prices of consumer goods.
"There's even room for gasoline in this future scenario — as a luxury fuel, primarily for hobbyist use, that's heavily taxed and sparsely distributed. If I want to drive my '73 Corvette around every couple of months, I should have that freedom, but it will cost me. Gas costs in excess of $6 a gallon in parts of Europe already. I can see a future where gas is an exotic fuel that I buy at $12 a gallon or higher and use very sparingly for my collector or antique cars. I wouldn't commute 40 miles to work in a gas car because it would bankrupt me.
"Personally, if I view the higher price of gas as the price I pay to keep my kids or my neighbor's kids from having to fight in a Middle East war, I'm happy to pay that price. The taxes on the gasoline could be used to offset my CO2 emissions and then some — so, in effect, gasoline use would be carbon-negative, albeit at a high cost."
Watch this space for more from Siry and others on where the auto industry is headed from here.
