Gulf "Show of Force" No Biggie?

The U.S. Navy is staging its "largest show of force in the Persian Gulf since 2003," with a pair of aircraft carriers launching sortie after sortie.

So you'd think the American military might be gearing up for a strike on Iran -- especially after those British sailors were hauled off to Tehran.

But one submarine-officer-turned blogger says the long-planned wargame with the Eisenhower and Stennis carrier groups actually "tends to minimize our ability to actually conduct any attacks on Iran; this is good news for those of us who don't think war with Iran is the right option at this time."

The absolute worst initial conditions for a U.S. attack on Iran would be to have both (or any) carriers inside the Persian Gulf - that's the only place where the Iranian forces could conceivably hurt our capital ships. For that reason, while a "show of force" has some public relations uses, I'm not sure it's the right move at this time from a strictly military standpoint-- the Iranians might actually be intending on starting something. (I don't think they are, but it's hard to read the mullah's minds.) Putting the carriers in a better position to defend themselves (i.e. pulling the Eisenhower out of the Gulf) would have sent a stronger message to the Iranian military -- at the cost of appearing "weak" to those who don't understand the military at a tactical level. On the other hand, this might be the Administration's way of being "de-escalatory" themselves.

(High five: Milblogs)