Since Apple announced the iPhone, I've changed my mind somewhat about how I think of Apple rumors. Sometimes the craziest buzz does come true. But I learned something else -- the hysteria that precedes a true rumor is much greater than what comes before a false one.
The iPhone was hyped for a good five years, reaching an insane fever pitch in the last months of last year. That's the sort of hype that would be required for me to buy into the rumors that Apple is weeks away from announcing a subcompact notebook with a display based in OLED technology and storage rooted solely in flash memory. For my full take, click through.
And I'm not seeing it this time around. OLED is actually still kind of a pipe-dream. I think we'll see it in the next two years, but definitely not in 2007. It won't be because Apple's behind, either -- no one's going to manage it. As for flash, the capacities involved still seem way too small. Of the two rumors, I buy the flash side more, but not by a lot. At current prices, Apple could manage maybe a 60GB drive, which is inadequate for any computer meant to host a multimedia library, which is table stakes for any computer these days.
On the other hand, Apple -- and consumers -- have shown a willingness to use flash-based solutions for the iPod nano or the iPhone in exchange for battery life and sleekness. It's a gamble, but it could pay huge dividends. But again, I'll be stunned if we see it this spring. Apple isn't in the mood to be first to a risky market these days -- they like to show up late but with the right product.
AmTech analyst sees Apple expanding flash-memory usage - MarketWatch:
