Well-meaning but totally misguided technology analyst Forrester Research brought out a new study today that provides evidence that only 22 songs have been sold on iTunes for every one iPod Apple has sold.
Wow, look at all of the stolen music on everyone's iPods! Or don't. Because it totally misses the point.
First, the obvious: The iTunes Music Store wasn't even introduced until April 28, 2003, a good 18 months after the iPod was first introduced. So by some mysterious technique, people were loading music onto their iPods for a year-and-a-half before it was ever legal to do so! What villains! However did they do it?
I just checked, and I have 89 files from the iTunes Store, purchased over the course of three and a half years. See? No one uses the iTunes Store, and people load iPods with illegal music. How else to explain the other 3600 songs in my iTunes library? Riiiiiiight. CDs. My bad. That and tons of people offering legitimate free downloads of music, via Salon and Pitchfork.
Step back a bit – a co-worker today cited this article as evidence that iTunes isn't actually an important part of Apple's success with the iPod. He's wrong, and I'll explain why. iTunes does not exist to be the only way for people to buy music, TV shows or movies. It's there to be a security blanket and a sampler. I don't buy much off of the store, but when I have bought, it was the only way I was going to get the song or show I wanted without grabbing a torrent.
iTunes does not exist to compete with record stores, really. It's there to compete with illegitimate song downloads. Of more than a billion songs downloaded from iTunes, I would guess a good 2/3rds are people buying a hit single instead of downloading it without the label's knowledge. It's the only reason I bought "Hey Ya!" let me tell you. I'll go to a record store every time if I can, but when I needed to hear M. Ward's "Transfiguration of Vincent" the very same night, iTunes was there.
If the forthcoming iPhone does offer the ability to buy songs through iTunes directly from the song, don't look for it to be a huge revenue stream for Apple. It's there to get people interested, because they like to be empowered by technology and know what they could do if they had the money – not the behavior that they'll actually follow every single day. It's the most perfect complementary piece of software and Web service ever created. And it's been an unqualified success, despite what the analysts are going to tell you.
Thanks, James!
