I’m putting together a home disaster kit. Should I stockpile “disaster” drugs – Tamiflu to fight avian flu, Cipro to treat anthrax, potassium iodide in case of a dirty bomb?
Ah, the romance of the survivalist: barricaded in the basement, surrounded by crates of canned tuna while roving bands of mutants prowl the burned-out ruins. After the epic bumbling of the Feds during Katrina, how can we expect to rely on them during a biological catastrophe? This is a country of rugged individualists, dammit! But here’s the problem: When it comes to infectious diseases – avian flu in particular – you aren’t really an individual anymore. As part of a society, you’re just a node on a network. Your health is determined less by your preparations than by the health of your neighbors and society as a whole.
Let’s war-game this for a second: The avian flu pandemic hits, and you retreat to your hermetically sealed, Xbox-enhanced bunker. You start popping Tamiflu. Then what? Previous lethal flu outbreaks proved that the sickness comes in waves. It’s nearly impossible to avoid contact with the infected forever. You could stockpile enough Tamiflu to last, oh, seven or eight months. But then you’d suffer the gastrointestinal side effects of taking the potent drug for that long, which are unknown but probably ghastly.
And, of course, the network effects work in the opposite direction. The more people stockpile Tamiflu, the more likely some are to take it preventatively – and that just helps evolve new superbugs that resist Tamiflu. (By the way, Tamiflu isn’t even guaranteed to cure avian flu.) The same goes for Cipro and anthrax. One drug for which this dismal logic doesn’t hold true is potassium iodide, which you take in the hours after a nuclear incident to prevent your thyroid from absorbing radiation. The pills are cheap, relatively plentiful, and won’t create impervious bugs.
There’s an even better solution: “The three top priorities are vaccine, vaccine, and vaccine,” says Marc Lipsitch, a Harvard professor of epidemiology. “Everything else is a stopgap.” This, by definition, requires government action, because governments are partially responsible for development and wide distribution of vaccines. The US is dragging its heels on this most crucial option. So to really make a difference, don’t be a survivalist. Be a socialist: Pick up your phone and give your representative hell.
Every once in a while I answer my cell phone while I’m on the toilet. Is this OK?
Oh, for the love of God.
Need some help navigating life in the 21st century?
Email mrknowitall@wiredmag.com
- Clive Thompson
START
Choose Your Own Adventure Returns
The Worst: Stupid Engineering Mistakes
Cipro Won't Save You
