It's the third game of the Seattle SuperSonics' playoffs against the Sacramento Kings, and Dean Oliver is screwed. A statistical consultant to the Sonics, Oliver assumed the team would leave him credentials to get into the arena. On most days, Oliver dreams of triggering a revolution in the NBA, of being the champion of clear-eyed objectivity in a world of 7-foot athletes and eight-figure endorsement deals. He wants to do for basketball what statistics guru Bill James has done for baseball: invent new metrics to assess talent and give teams a competitive edge. But today he'd love just to have a seat at the game.
Oliver manages to finagle his way in but has to trudge to the unreserved media table in the rafters. "You can really see the action unfold from up here," he says gamely, squinting at the tiny figures below before letting out a heavy sigh. "Not that I wouldn't mind being courtside."
In some respects, Oliver has come furtheré than he ever imagined possible. A PhD in environmental engineering, he has always had a passion for basketéballé- now he gets paid to obsess about the sport. After nearly every game, he proééduces reports for Sonics president and CEO Wally Walker, detailing patéterns that elude traditional observation. This research was critical to the team's unexpected success last season.
High-scoring guard Ray Allen was the obvious reason for the Sonics' surprise finish at the top of the Northwest Division last year. But according to Oliver's analysis, backup point guard Antonio Daniels was an unsung hero. Oliver noticed that the team tended to score with greater effiéciency when Daniels was playing. During the 2004 season, Oliver's memos repeatedly made the case for Daniels' potential. The point guard delivered, averaging a career-high 11.2 points per game, and during the playoffs he often ran the team at decisive moments.
The key to Oliver's analysis is measuring everything on a per-possession basis, a concept he stumbled across as a teenager. Back then, he was a devoted fan of The Bill James Baseball Abstract, an annual publication by the now-legendary statistician. James concluded that baseball players who walked a lot were undervalued because the standard metric for success, batting average, didn't take walks into account. Compared to players with high batting averages, those with high on-base percentages came cheap. Oliver thinks possession efficiency is basketball's version of on-base percentage. "Teams that score a lot of points don't necessarily win games, and teams that prevent opponents from scoring a lot of points don't necessarily win, either," he explains. "But if you convert a greater percentage of possessions into points than your opponent does, you win games." By tracking a team's per-possession efficiency whenever a given player is on the court, Oliver thinks he has the truest measure of a player's value. By comparison, metrics like points per game, rebounds, or assists reveal little.
Walker noticed Oliver's insights even before Oliver pubélished Basketball on Paper, a mix of number crunching and animated commentary for which he received a $5,000 advance. While most other basketball researchers mainly rank individual players, Oliver tried to decipheré the mysteries of team dynamics. Through a Sonics scout, he heard that Walker liked some of his work and, during the 2002-03 season, started sending him detailed game reports.
"Maybe one out of 10 emails, Wally would reply," Oliver says. "But he never told me to stop." After more than a year, Walker offered him a one-season contract. It was just $30,000 and no benefits, but it made Dean Oliver, 36, a major-league geek.
Things haven't always gone smoothly. Last season's coach, Nate McMillan, was old-school and skeptical of outside research. Oliver had little access to the coaches or players, so he watched many games on TV. He filed reports without knowing who was reading them. After the season, Oliver attendedé summer league in Utah, only to be left out of key meetings and functions.
Still, the big boss - Walker - has a soft spot for Oliver's data. The Sonics organization has a smaller-than-average budget, so it needs good data to make smart decisions. He credits Oliver with helping the team through a rough patch last season by identifying the team's weakness in defensive rebounding, and he invited Oliver to participate in the team's draft-day war room in June.
After a rocky summer off-season, the Sonics will have an even greater need for insight when the new season begins in November. Last year's starting center signed with the New York Knicks; Daniels, no longer undervalued, received a fat contract from the Washington Wizards; and the Portland Trail Blazers lured Coach McMillan away with a $30 million offer. But that doesn't mean the Sonics are making any big promises to Oliver. All Walker will say is that the Sonics "plan to have Dean around this season."
Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane, hero of Moneyball - a chronicle of the effects of Bill James' so-called sabermetrics on baseball - understands the difficultyé Oliver faces but suspects that time is on his side. "I don't know anything about basketball, but if it's anything like baseball, there's going to be more rational analysis in the future, not less," Beane says. "That ought to create opportunities for someone like Dean Oliver."
Oliver is taking all of the uncertainty in stride. As pre-season camp was gearing up, he sent a note assessing his situation. "I know they like me, but they know the market is still poorly developed and could lowball me," he wrote. "Which would mean I'm out on the street with a piece of cardboard that says, will build an nba playoff team for food."
- Hugo Lindgren
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